New Look Archer Brings New Approach to 2020
Let's take a look back at July 31st, 2018. The Pittsburgh Pirates sat at 56-52 and were right in the thick of things in the National League Central race. They were looking for a big move to get them over the top and back into the playoffs for the first time since the 2015 season.
Former General Manager Neil Huntington thought he had his man when he pulled the trigger on a trade that sent Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and Shane Baz to the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer, a former Ace and Cy Young Award candidate, to help bolster the starting rotation.
Archer came to Pittsburgh with a lot of hype, but ineffectiveness and injuries have led to that excitement turning into regret. Over the last season and a half, Archer has gone just 9-17 with a 4.92 ERA and made just 23 starts a year ago.
However, Archer enters 2020 with a new look and a new approach as he looks to get back to his former success. Archer has been a strikeout pitcher throughout his career with three 200+ strikeout seasons, all in Tampa Bay. However, those numbers have been down since joining the Pirates, and last season's 143 strikeouts was his lowest total since the 2013 season.
Archer has said he was just following the Pirates old philosophy of pitching to contact and he wasn't used to that. So, he brought back his old approach in August and it seemed to pay off. In his final four starts, he allowed just six earned runs in 18 innings of work (a 3.00 ERA) while striking out 36 batters.
Now I know that is a very small sample size, but if it is any indication of what's to come a change in regime is just what Archer needs. Once a top of the rotation arm, if Archer can return to form in 2020 it would be a huge boost for this year's team.
One of the other issues that Archer must address in 2020 is the home run ball. He gave up 25 home runs a year ago, the most by any Pirates pitcher, out of his 114 hits allowed. It was only the third time in Archer's career that he gave up 25+ home runs and it put the Bucs in a tight spot.
Not only was Archer giving up more home runs, but his hard hit rate skied to 39.8%. Many of those hard hit balls did not find fielders gloves leading to more runs allowed and in turn more home runs. Part of this maybe the pitches that Archer is using.
Before joining the Bucs, Archer relied heavily on his slider season by season using it more than 40% of the time. After joining the Pirates, his slider usage went down and he started using his Change-up more (12.1% of the time). With that change came more hard hit balls as he was barreled up a career-high 10.5% of the time.
Just like his strikeout mentality, a change back to his old fastball/slides mix may be beneficial for the 31 year old. His slider has some solid movement with 5.4 inches of break and a 33.8 inch drop that could fool hitters after seeing a 94 mph fastball.
Projection: 6-9, 4.10 ERA
I see Archer making a some what of a return to his former self but by no means a complete turn around. I feel that his strikeout numbers will go uo, which will help early in the season, but the question will be is he able to adjust as hitters start to adjust to his new approach.
As of now, the season is expected to begin somewhere around May 25th. Until then, we will continue to look at the men who make up this year's team and their contributions in 2020.
Comments
Post a Comment