Projecting Ke'Bryan Hayes's Performance Over a Whole Season
Every year, several players across Major League Baseball end up making their Major League debuts. For many of those players, there is really no fanfare involved as they just slide into the mold of their teams. However, there are a few players who end up sending their fanbases in a frenzy waiting to see what they can do. For the Pirates, that exciting type of call-up came on September 1st, 2019, when the Pirates called up third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes to make his MLB debut against the Chicago Cubs that night. Fans had heard about Hayes since he was drafted 32nd overall in the 2015 MLB draft and were excited to see if he lived up to the hype.
Hayes did not disappoint and was able to win out the everyday third baseman's job by seasons end. He appeared in 24 games for the Pirates during the season and hit .376 with five home runs and 11 RBI, spanning 85 at-bats. Hayes had a knack for coming up in big situations and ended the season hitting .364 with runners in scoring position. In just a short time in the Big Leagues, Hayes ranked fifth among rookies in OPS (1.124), sixth in batting average (.376), and was in the top 20 in hits with 32. Now that he has made his presence felt, it is time for him to take over as a full-time fixture in the Pirates lineup in 2021. Is Hayes's success that he has seen at the Big League level sustainable, or is a sophomore slump in the future for Hayes.
Making an Immediate Impact
Even though Hayes made his presence felt immediately upon arrival to the Major Leagues, you don't want to get too excited just yet. It was a very small 24-game sample size in a season that was unlike any other in league history. Hayes still has many challenges ahead of him, including competing for a spot on the Pirates 2021 Opening Day roster. Pitchers are going to make adjustments to him, and try to fool him at the plate. It is up to Hayes to make adjustments himself, and continue to produce for a full season. If you put his 2020 numbers and project for a full season he would have hit .376 with 34 home runs and 74 RBI. Those are all-star, heck even MVP, caliber numbers. However, given his track record, they are also unrealistic expectations for the 23-year-old infielder.
He has only been an above .300 hitter once in his five-year Minor League career and his career-high for home runs in a season was 10 in 2019. Hayes is normally not a guy who is going to amaze you with his power numbers, but he does like to work the gaps and rack up those extra-base hits. He recorded 30 or more doubles in each of his last two Minor League seasons and has an extra-base hit percentage of 30.2% in his Minor League career. He continued that success in the Major Leagues in his first 85 at-bats, hitting seven doubles and having an extra-base hit percentage of 43.8%. With the big gaps available to him at PNC Park, he should be able to continue that high extra-base hit percentage and help the Bucs produce.
One of the red flags that pops up when you look at Hayes's stat line is his lack of patience at the plate. He doesn't walk that much, with only 188 walks in his first five seasons as a Minor Leaguer, relying more on the fact that he can put the ball in play consistently. His highest walk numbers came in 2018 when he walked 57 times in 508 plate appearances. He continued this trend in the Major Leagues with a contact percentage of 93.7% when the ball is in the zone and 60.0% when it is out of the zone. He is right around league average in terms of plate discipline, with a chase percentage of 28%, and it will be interesting to see if guys start pitching around him how he will change his approach at the plate.
Projecting Hayes's 2021 Season
Looking at his track record in the Minor Leagues, I do think that Hayes will have some regression from his 2020 season, but not very much. I see him hitting anywhere from .285 to .300 with 16 home runs and 86 RBI while playing in a majority of his team's games. Look for him to use the big gaps at PNC Park to his advantage as he continues to hit the ball well with runners in scoring position. I think the lack of walks will hurt him a little bit, but his low strikeout numbers benefit him and might help to balance out those walk numbers. The more contact he makes, the better off he will be in his first full season in the Big Leagues.
Hayes will still be in the running for the National League Rookie of the Year award in 2021 given his service time, and look for him to make a run at it. Bryan Reynolds finished fourth in ROY voting in 2019 and Hayes could very well find himself in the running himself with a good 2021 season. My bold prediction for Hayes is that he is going to lead the Pirates in doubles this season. He has shown a track record of being able to find the gaps, with back-to-back 30+ double seasons, and I think PNC Park will only play to that strength. Defensively, Hayes has already shown exceptional skill at third base and I look for that to continue in 2021.
This upcoming season will be a big year for both Hayes and the Pittsburgh Pirates in terms of their future. Hayes is looking to cement himself a spot in the Pirates lineup and a chance to become the face of the franchise. For the Pirates, they are looking to start building up from being the worst team in the MLB and fight for a playoff spot. There is still a lot of work for the Pirates to do, but with guys like Hayes and Reynolds anchoring the team, they have some good core pieces that they can build around. The Pirates are still probably a couple of years away from contention, but we are starting to see the seeds of a competitive team.
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