Off-season Questions: Who is the Pirates 2021 Ace?
Entering 2021, the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation looks a lot different than it did last season. Gone are Joe Musgrove, Jameson Taillon, and Chris Archer as the Pirates plan to build for the future. They have done a good job of that already, adding 11 top prospects between their three big trades this off-season. However, when you look at the Major League team, there is no clear cut ace on the current roster. Of the current eligible starters, only Chad Kuhl has pitched more than 30 games in a season, and he is coming off Tommy John surgery. The other two locks have not pitched a full season as a starter in the Major Leagues.
The starters are going to be relied on to go deep into games all season after the group averaged just four innings per start last season. The group ranked 19th in Major League Baseball last season with a 4.74 ERA and are looking to improve upon that number in 2021. Out of the group, three names stand above the rest as Steven Brault, Mitch Keller, and Chad Kuhl all look to play pivotal parts in the rotation this year. One of them will have to step up and be the guy the Pirates can rely on when they need a win. All three were top prospects for the Pirates at one time, and will now have to live up to that potential. Today, we look at which one will be the ace of the Pirates staff in 2021.
Steven Brault
Out of the three pitchers listed, the one with the most experience on the mound for the Pirates is left-hander Steven Brault. Brault has bounced around between the bullpen and the starting rotation over the years but has found himself a full-time spot in the rotation in 2021. 2021 will be his sixth year on the mound for the Pirates, and he has gone a combined 12-15 with a 4.68 ERA. However, 2020 was his best year on record as he went 1-3 with w career-low 3.38 ERA over 42.2 innings of work. He set career-lows in ERA and Opponent Batting Average (.195) while tying his career-high for Strikeouts per nine at 8.02. He started the year as a Piggyback starter before pitching his way into the starting rotation.
Through his first four starts of the year, Brault did not allow an earned run and was looking strong. However, he hit a rough patch at the beginning of September where he gave up 11 earned runs over 14.2 innings of work and he knew something needed to change. He stopped thinking on the mound and instead relied on catcher Jacob Stallings and things started to improve. His improvement began to show on September 17th against the St. Louis Cardinals. Brault allowed just two hits and one earned run as he tossed his first career complete game. He ended the season strong allowing just that one earned run over his final 16 innings of work to end the year. Brault showed a lot of positives at the end of 2020 and looks to use that momentum to lead the rotation into 2021.
Mitch Keller
Being that he was the Pirate's #1 overall prospect just a year ago, the team is hoping that Mitch Keller can step into the #1 pitcher role in 2021. He took steps towards that in 2020, but injuries limited him to just five starts. When he was on the field, he showed that he can be a go-to option going 1-1 with a 2.91 ERA over 21.2 innings of work. It was refreshing to see Keller have success out of the gate after going 1-5 with a 7.13 ERA during his rookie year in 2019. He made his first start of the year on July 26th and put together a solid outing going five innings and giving up just one earned run. However, his next start he would leave after just 2.2 with a left oblique strain that would keep him out for over a month.
Kelley came back on September 14th to a rough debut where he gave up three earned runs in three innings, but after that, he started to make history. Over his final two starts of the season, Keller worked a total of 11 innings and did not give up a single hit. He did give up one run on 10 walks and nine strikeouts, but he became the first National League pitcher to throw consecutive no-hitters since Jordan Vander Meer did it in 1938. The thing that Keller needs to work on most is his control as he walked 10 batters over his final two starts. Kelley showed last year that he can excel against Big League pitching and looks to become an elite starting pitcher during the 2021 season.
Chad Kuhl
One of the biggest question marks for the Pirates rotation entering the 2020 season was Chad Kuhl. He was just coming off Tommy John Surgery and hadn't pitched in a game since June 26th, 2018. The Pirates eased him back into the starting rotation as the second half of a piggyback role with Brault before giving him a rotation spot. He had a good bounce-back year going 2-3 with a 4.27 ERA in 11 outings, nine of those being starts. The elbow showed no sign of regression and Kuhl looks as though he is back and ready to go. He seemed to get more and more confident as the year went on and sent a message that he was back with his final two starts.
Both turned out to be quality starts and he allowed just one earned run over his final 12 innings of work. His second to last outing came in a double-header against the St. Louis Cardinals where he gave up four runs, one earned, in five innings as the defense let him down. He responded with seven shutout innings in his final start of the season, at PNC Park against the Chicago Cubs. His average velocity dropped a little bit since his surgery, with his fastball going from averaging 95.3mph to averaging 93.7 mph, but he showed that he can handle a starter's workload. The question is whether or not he can handle it over a full season in 2021.
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