Chad Kuhl: Futue Pirate or Trade Bait in 2021
Last season, one of the Pittsburgh Pirates who was drawing a lot of trade interest was starting pitcher Chad Kuhl. In his return from Tommy John surgery, the right-hander was looking strong posting a 2.52 ERA prior to the August 31st trade deadline. Reportedly, the Toronto Blue Jays had a lot of interest in the then 28-year-old's services, but they were unwilling to give up their top catching prospect Alejandro Kirk in the deal. So, Kuhl remained a Pirate and earned the right to be the Opening Day starter in 2021. However, it was a struggle for Kuhl early on, as he couldn't command his pitches and even ended up on the IL. It looked as though all his trade value was lost and that he would not be garnering as much interest in 2021.
However, over his last six starts, Kuhl has changed that narrative putting up big numbers and leading the Pirates rotation once again. Over his last six starts, Kuhl has gone 3-1 with a 2.47 ERA, including taking a no-decision in last night's opener with the San Francisco Giants. He has struck out 30 batters over 32.2 innings of work during that span while walking 13 as he has gotten back on track. Kuhl is scheduled to make at least one more start before the trade deadline and could heighten his value even further with another good outing. As we have seen so far, General Manager Ben Cherington won't take just any deal for his players, so a good group of prospects would have to be the return. Today, we look at what the return could be for Kuhl in a trade and whether or not he will still be a Pirate come July 31st.
Chas Kuhl's Trade Value
The big thing to look at when evaluating whether or not a player should be traded is looking at who the team could get in return for that player. On the surface, Chad Kuhl's numbers don't look that enticing as a rotation leader. In 13 starts this season for Pittsburgh, Kuhl has gone 3-5 with a 4.38 ERA over 61.2 innings of work. However, teams will also be taking a look at his career, to see what they are getting if they take Kuhl on. Throughout his Major League career, Kuhl has never had an ERA below 4.00, with his career-best being 4.20 back during his rookie season. Kuhl is probably a three to five starter in a Big League rotation and is a guy who also has the stuff to make a move to the bullpen if a perspective team needs him to.
Kuhl's biggest deterrent to prospective teams is going to be his command, as he has struggled to locate pitches since returning from Tommy John Surgery. He has walked 13.3% of the batters he has faced over the last two seasons and has opponent batting averages of .212 and .228 respectively. He had some control problems early in the season, and that took a toll on his trade value. These command issues are something other teams are keeping in mind when looking at Kuhl and deciding whether or not he is a good fit for their team. However, Kuhl does balance out some of those command issues with a good career strikeout rate as he sets batters down at a 20.5% clip during his career.
When looking at what talent Kuhl could bring in a deal, I don't see the Pirates getting talent like they did in the Josh Bell deal, but they could get that same volume. I could see Kuhl bringing back one Major League/Triple-A fringe player, like Wil Crowe, and a low-A prospect who may be near the bottom or just off of a team's top 30 prospect list. You aren't going to get a top 100 prospect for Kuhl, and probably not a top 150 prospect either. However, the valuable asset with Kuhl, and the one that might keep him in Pittsburgh at least for this season, is his years of control. He isn't scheduled to become a free agent until after the 2023 season, so the Pirates or whichever team trades for him still has control of Kuhl for next season and the following season. That leverage could help the Pirates nab a little bit of a stronger Minor League prospect, but I still don't think they crack the top 100 prospects list.
Do the Pirates Love Him or List Him
As far as whether or not the Pirates will trade Kuhl or not, we allude to the HGTV show "Love it or List It." The Pirates can either keep Kuhl and ride him out for the next two seasons, love him, or put him on the trade market and see what they can get for him in return, list him. Much like the show, both options make sense for the Pirates in their own way and it will depend on how the market plays out as to which way the Pirates will go. With guys like Quinn Priester, Roamsy Contreras, and Tahnaj Thomas waiting in the wings, the Pirates rotation is set to undergo some big changes the next few seasons. Whether or not Kuhl serves as a mentor or a trade piece is yet to be seen and will be largely determined by the return.
Looking at the starting pitcher market, there are several contenders who could use starting pitching. Team's like the Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners, and the Los Angeles Angels come to mind. While Kuhl may not be the prized possession when it comes to starting pitchers on the Pirates roster, Kuhl offers a discount as to what it could take to get his services. After drafting Henry Davis in the 2021 draft, the Pirate's biggest needs right now are starting pitching depth, outfield help, and a power-hitting prospect. Of the three teams, the Angels have a lot of outfield depth and the Mariners offer great pitching depth on their top 30 prospects list. All three teams would be good trade partners, but the value has to be there in order for Cherington to make a move.
However, the Pirates could opt to keep Kuhl this year and use him as trade bait down the road. Kuhl has good stuff, and I think we are just seeing what he can do over these last sox starts. Injuries have limited him during his time in the Big Leagues, but hopefully, he has a clean bill of health the rest of the way and he can finally thrive the way he did in the Minor Leagues. Given his injury history, and his struggles this season, it might be more beneficial for the Pirates to stick with Kuhl and hope his trade value raises next season. From his impressive MLB debut against Clayton Kershaw to fighting back from Tommy John Surgery, Kuhl has shown the Pirates what he can do, now it's time to put those skills on the national stage.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (37-60) look to take the first two games from the San Francisco Giants (61-36) tonight at 9:05 pm. Wil Crowe (1-5, 6.15) takes the hill for the Pirates tonight against Kevin Gausman (9-3, 1.84) for the Giants. You can watch the game live on AT&T Sportsnet or listen live on 93.7 The Fan.
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