Shorter Starts: A Result of The Shortened Season or New Normal
On a sunny day in St. Louis, Steven Brault took the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates as they were looking for their first sweep of the season. Brault entered the game with a 1.84 ERA in his first three starts, and after giving up an early run was on track to turn in another strong outing. He got into a jam created by his defense in the fourth, having runners at the corners and no outs, and worked out of it thanks to an incredible defensive play on a bunt by Brault. He finished the fourth inning at 80 pitches and allowed just the one run on five hits while walking two and striking out one. He wasn't nearly as efficient as he was in his other three starts, but he looked primed to go out there for the fifth inning.
However, as the Pirates took the field for the fifth, it was reliever Kyle Keller taking the mound to relieve Steven Brault. If Brault was at 80 pitches in 2019, it would almost be a guarantee he comes out for the fifth. However, after dealing with the lat injury early this season, Manager Derek Shelton wanted to get him out of there. Although, the early exit isn't a new thing for the Pirates this season, as we saw it in the first two games of the series as well. Mitch Keller was pulled after five innings and 89 pitches on Friday and Dillon Peters was pulled after five innings and 72 pitches on Saturday. These quick hooks are becoming more and more relevant in baseball, and it is taking a toll on bullpens. Today, we look at whether this is a product of the 2020 shortened season or if it is something that is the new normal for Major League Baseball.
Shorter Starts, More Bullpen Work
Over the last three full Big League seasons, the Pittsburgh Pirates have thrown fewer and fewer innings per start. In 2018, Pirates starters worked 887.1 innings of work and followed that up with 813.1 innings of work in 2019. So far this season, the group ranks 27th in baseball with the starting crew lasting just 592.2 innings. They are averaging just under 5.0 innings a start this season, which puts them on pace to pitch 797 innings in 2021. Because these starters have gone fewer and less innings, it has been the bullpen that has suffered. During those same three years, the team reliever ERA has gone up in correlation with the decrease in starter's innings pitched. In 2018, the bullpen ERA was 4.01, in 2019 it was 4.91, and this season they are on pace to have an ERA in the low 5.00s.
This data spans across two different managers in Clint Hurdle and Derek Shelton, which leads me to believe it may be a shift in baseball culture. Even when you look at the MLB leaders in innings pitched by starting pitchers those numbers have shrunk as well. In 2018, the Houston Astros starters led the league with 993.1 innings followed by the New York Mets in 2019 with 941.1 innings of work. This season, it is the Oakland Athletics who lead baseball, and they are on pace for 918 innings pitched this season. So, it isn't just the Pirates starters who are going shorter, but starters across baseball are being pulled earlier and earlier. Sometimes, an early yank is warranted, but in the case of a couple of starts for the Pirates in this series, it was not.
The most frustrating instance of a Pirates starter being pulled happened on Saturday with Dillon Peters on the mound. Peters was rolling in his second Pirates start and needed just 72 pitches to get through five innings. He had allowed just one run on three hits while walking one and striking out three, lowering his season ERA to 1.86 ERA. It looked like he would come out for the sixth with the Pirates leading 2-1, but Shelton went to the bullpen and called on Nick Mears. The move would ultimately backfire as Mears was charged for two runs and took all chances of Peters to get his first Pirates win out of the picture. With Brault yesterday, you could point to the injury this season, but with Peters, this move left me scratching my head. From what I have uncovered it looks as though this is the new trend in baseball, and something teams will have to combat.
Helping Save the Bullpen
With starter's innings pitched going down across the league, there needs to be countermeasures taken to help the bullpen. Middle and long relievers are the ones hurting the most as they are forced to work long innings two and three consecutive days in a row. This lowers their chance of success and puts the opposing offense at an advantage. If this is the way baseball is going, one way to fix this is to put more starters on your roster. It would involve shuffling the normal make of a bullpen, and going to a piggyback set-up where you pair two starting pitchers throughout the season or designate a bullpen guy for each starter. For example, when Steven Brault starts, Nick Mears relieves, and when Dillon Peters starts, Duane Underwood Jr. relieves. This would allow both the starters and bullpen guys to get five days' rest, making them fresher when they come to the mound.
In the first model, a team would have 10 "starting pitchers" on their team along with a back-end guy, set-up man, and closer to round out a 13-man pitching staff. In this model, you would essentially have two guys who are pitching every five days. Say the first pairing is Chad Kuhl and Dillon Peters. Kuhl would start, and whatever he couldn't cover up to the seventh or eighth inning would be taken by Peters. Then, you call on your back-end guys in no particular order to end the game. If the two starters combine for 7.0 to 8.0 innings every night, the back-end guys can be used interchangeably giving them rest. You do this throughout the rotation, pairing two pitchers on five days' rest each, and you work with fresher arms in the game. The second model is almost the same method but pairs a starter and reliever up that pitches every five days with him. It would give long-relievers more of a role on the team, and a manager could also be sure they are giving proper rest.
Where this model falls short is in extra-inning games where more guys would be required. That would put more work on the back-end guys as you wouldn't have a long guy available for extras unless you use one of your scheduled relievers a day early. Baseball is an ever-changing game with new rules and new strategies every day. Maybe this is a new strategy that saves pitchers' arms and helps drop injury numbers. Guys are throwing much harder today than they were even 13 years ago, and it is resulting in more and more IL trips. In 2008, the average pitch velocity in Major League Baseball was around 90 mph and today that jumped to just over 93 mph. Pitchers are throwing harder and this may be a change that helps pitchers in the long run. The days of complete-game shutouts and even 7.0-8.0 innings starts are fading and may soon become a thing of the past. If this changes, so too must the roles pitchers play in getting their teams victories.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (44-80) open a three-game series tonight with the Arizona Diamondbacks (41-83) tonight at PNC Park at 7:05 pm. Wil Crowe (3-7, 5.23) takes the hill for the Pirates looking to go longer than four innings as he faces a pitcher to be named for the Diamondbacks. You can watch the game live on AT&T Sportsnet or listen on 93.7 The Fan.
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