Keller Looking to Lead Bucs Rotation in 2020

Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation was one of the biggest let downs with an ERA of 5.26. After a season that was full of injury and underperformance, the starting five return in 2020 looking to bounce back and lead the Pirates back towards contention in the competitive National League Central.

In a season that was littered with injuries and poor performance, one of the most disappointing position groups was the starting rotation. After being the driving force of getting the Pirates back into contention for the last several seasons, the group faltered turning in a 5.26 team ERA and not living up to the expectations that followed the group entering 2019.

However, as we look ahead to 2020, most of the same crew is back and looking to learn from last year's mistakes. They have a new leader in pitching coach Oscar Marin and a new approach using analytics to help improve themselves pitch-by-pitch. For this article, we will look at my predictions for the starting rotation and how they fair entering the 2020 season.

Leading this year's group is Pirates top-pitching prospect Mitch Keller, who is looking to become the staff's ace in 2020. Keller was brought up at the end of May due to an injury that sidelined Jameson Taillon for the rest of the season and most of 2020. His first Major League start did not go as planned when he lasted just four innings against the Cincinnati Reds giving up six earned runs in the loss. However, there were positive signs as he struck out seven batters and walked two.

Keller would bounce between the Majors and Minors and ended the year 1-5 with a 7.13 ERA striking out 65 batters in 48 innings. Despite his early slump, his final two starts of the season gave him momentum going into the off-season allowing just three runs in 10 innings of work against the Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs. 

Keller offers a four pitch mix and he can throw them all for strikes on a consistent basis. He relies on his fastball and slider to get ahead in the count and mixes in a devastating curveball as his out pitch. His control really shined in 2019 as he walked just 16 batters in 48 innings of work. His control is going to be key in 2020 and a big part of his development as he enters his first full Major League season. I see Keller as a fixture at the top of the Pirates rotation now and for years to come.

Joe Musgrove returns as the veteran of the bunch entering his age 27 season. He had the best year of his career in 2019 when he went 11-12 with a 4.44 ERA in a career-high 170.1 innings of work. The former world series champion came into his role as a leader on the team and the top starter on the staff.

It wasn't the best start to the season for Musgrove who went just 3-6 with a 4.57 ERA over the first two months of the season. However, he went 3-1 in the month of June and it kick started him for the rest of the season finishing 8-6 over his final 14 decisions.

While Keller is looking to come into his own in 2020, Musgrove is tasked with being the leader of this young rotation. He has the most playoff experience out of any of the five projected starters and comes into spring training with new mechanics that he looks to use to his advantage.

Chris Archer came to the Pirates with much promise, and a hefty price, during the 2018 season. However, he hasn't performed up to expectations since joining the Bucs battling injury and facing bad luck. 2019 was the worst season of Archer's career as he went 3-9 with a career-high 5.19 ERA.

Since joining the Pirates, Archer has tried to pitch to contact and it hasn't worked out for the right hander. Last season, he gave up a .304 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) while walking an average of just over four batters per game. Archer has publicly voiced his displeasure over the philosophies of the old regime so a change in leadership might benefit Archer.

Injuries also plagued the right-hander as his season was cut short due to a shoulder injury. He is back and healthy in camp this season and is looking to get back to his strikeout form. He averaged just under 11 strikeouts per game last season, his highest since 2017, and he is looking to get back to form in 2020.

Trevor Williams rounds out the most-likely locks for the Pirates rotation and is looking for a bounce back season of his own. After a terrific ending to the 2018 season, he struggled through under performance and injury in 2019. He went just 7-9 with a 5.38 ERA in 26 starts last season.

He missed time in the middle of the season with an oblique strain which allowed him only 26 starts. It was a good start to the season as Williams allowed two runs or less in four of his first six starts. Things were going well for Williams until he left his May 16th start with an oblique injury.

After his return, he made 17 more starts and gave up four or more runs eight times and had ERAs North of six in each of the final three months of the season. Williams also comes into 2020 camp healthy and looks to get back to his 2018 form where he had a 3.11 ERA in 32 starts. If Williams can do even half of that in 2020, the Pirates rotation could be an under rated one.

The fifth starter spot is still up for grabs with three players battling for the final spot, Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, and Chris Stratton. All three make a case for the final rotation spot but as of now Brault looks to slide into the spot.

Brault had an up and down 2019 going 4-6 with a 5.16 ERA. He bounced between the minors, the bullpen, and the starting rotation all year long as he started 19 of the 25 games he appeared in. In those 19 starts he turned in 12 quality starts and used a steady dose of the fast ball to get ahead in the count. His fastball control will be key to his success if he wants to succeed this season.

Overall, the rotation looks the same as 2019 but all five should improve in 2020. If all five can get back to their original form, the Pirates could have one of the most dangerous rotations in the National League. However, that is wishful thinking and I feel the Pirates will be right around the middle of the road.

The Pittsburgh Pirates continue their Grapefruit League Schedule when they take on the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies in split squad ac