Holmes Trying to Battle Back from Injury Filled Season.
At one time, Clay Holmes was a highly touted prospect that was going to be a part of a young dominant Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation. He was ranked #10 in the Pirates system entering the 2012 season and was set to join the likes of Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Tyler Glasnow as the next generation of young Pirates starting pitching.
However, things have not turned out as Holmes planned as injuries derailed his starting pitching career and turned him into a full-time reliever. He made his major League debut in 2018 and quickly went down hill as a starter going 1-2 with a 7.80 ERA in four starts. Moving ahead to 2019, Holmes was fighting for a spot in the Pirates bullpen in Spring Training.
He didn't make the Opening Day Roster and was sent down to Triple A Indianapolis to work on his craft as a reliever. He ended up being called up in late April and appeared in 35 games out of the bullpen going 1-2 with a slightly better 5.58 ERA in 50 innings of work. It was a career-high workload for Holmes at the Major League level, but once again injuries effected Holmes and put him on the injured list on two separate occasions.
The first was on July 24th for right tricep imflimation and the second was on August 21st for left quadriceps discomfort. Holmes would come back on September 1st and finished out the season appearing in four games and posting a 4.15 ERA in 8.2 innings of work ending another injury filled season. Looking at Holmes body of work in 2019, the right-hander relied on his sinker more than 52% of the time.
While his sinker has good velocity and movement, topping out at 94 mph and dropping off nearly 29 inches, it isn't fooling opposing hitters. Batters are hitting .250 against the sinker and an extra base average of .249, meaning that opposing hitters aren't only hitting the pitch but they are finding gaps and driving in runs. However, when Holmes's sinker wasn't fooling hitters he had to go to his other off-speed pitches.
One pitch that did work for Holmes was his curveball that had opposing hitters batting just .217. After batters saw the high-speed sinker, Holmes would drop in his curveball down and in to right-handers and falling away from lefties. Because of this, he generated 33 strikeouts off the curveball giving him a reliable pitch that he can put batters away with.
Holmes was having a strong start to 2020 Spring Training pitching 2.1 perfect innings of work striking out a better in three games. However, Holmes hit another bump in the road when he fractured his right foot in a game against the Minnesota Twins. Holmes is set to miss 4-6 weeks and is currently in a walking boot while waiting to get back to work.
This unfortunate injury puts a big dent in Holmes's chances of making an impact on the 2020 Pirates. If he is not ready to go by the time the 2020 season begins, guys like Michael Feliz, Chris Stratton, and Chad Kuhl will get opportunities as Middle Relievers. If they perform well, it might mean Holmes is moved down the depth chart.
For Holmes's sake I hope he is ready to go for the start of the 2020 season, whenever that may be. Holmes has had success in the minor leagues, posting an ERA below 3.50 in four of his six professional seasons, but that success just hasn't translated to the Major League level.
Prediction: 6.34 ERA (22 Games 30.1 IP)
While I would love to see Clay Holmes succeed because I love under dog stories, I don't see Holmes panning out for the Pirates in 2020. His injury might be helped by the delayed start of the season getting him close to ready by Opening Day but I don't think he is going to crack the roster. Look for Holmes to be sent back and forth between the Majors and Minors once again this season.
As of now, the season is expected to begin somewhere around May 25th. Until then, we will continue to look at the men who make up this year's team and their contributions in 2020.
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