Keller Looking to Break Out as Bucs Ace in 2020
The 2020 season is a big year for Pirates prospect Mitch Keller as he enters his first full season in a big league uniform. Pittsburgh's #1 overall prospect got his feet wet in the majors last season, making 11 starts for the big league club, but now he looks to transition into a staple in the Pirates starting rotation.
However, it was a rough start to Keller's major league career. In 11 games, the right-hander went 1-5 with a 7.13 ERA in 48 innings of work while walking 16 and striking out 65 batters. He got called up on May 27th for his big league debut against the Cincinnati Reds and things didn't go as Keller planned. After getting the first out of his big league career, Keller allowed six of the next seven batters to score and found his team down 6-0 in inning number one. The bright side, he did not allow a run over his final three innings of work striking out seven batters and allowing only one other Red to reach.
He would be sent up and down throughout the month of June and early August and his performance at the Major League level continued on a downward spiral. Keller allowed four runs or more in four of his first five starts. He gave up 32 hits in his first 21.1 innings of work and opponents were hitting over .350 against him over those first five starts. Once Keller started getting more consistent time at the big league level he started to show some signs that he can be the go to guy for the Pirates.
Over Keller's final six starts of the season, he turned in four quality starts and made adjustments to be successful. In his final start of the year against the Chicago Cubs he allowed just one run over five innings of work sending him into the off-season with some momentum on his side. It is that momentum that he will try to bring into his first full-season as a starter for the Pirates. Keller has good stuff, he just needs to be able to adjust to what other batters are doing.
One thing that stuck out while Keller was in the majors last year was his control. Keller walked just 16 batters in 48 innings of work while only hitting one batter. This control has been something that has been with him at almost every level of the Pirates minor league system. He had a BB/9 rate of 3.5 or less in each of the last four seasons and has not walked more than 55 batters in a season during that time span. It is this control that will help propel Keller at the major league level and if he can keep those walks down he is going to be a top line starter.
The other thing going for Keller is his strikeout ability which became more predominant during the 2019 season. He struck out 65 batters in 48 innings of work at the major league level for a K/9 average of 12.2. It was only the second time in his professional career that he had a K/9 in the double digits and the first time since the 2015 season when he was pitching in rookie ball. It was his fastball that helped Keller be so successful generating 22 strikeouts off the pitch.
Keller used the fastball 59.5% of the time last season and for good reason with it topping out at around 95-96 mph. Keller likes to work the heat inside the right-handed batters and trailing away from lefties. However, when you throw a pitch that much, you have to have a secondary pitch to back it up and for Keller he has two different pitches that he can throw in there to get outs. It is a combination between his slider and his curveball that gets him his strikeouts as he runs both pitches down and in.
He threw the slider 20.8% of the time and got 18 strikeouts while he threw the curveball 15.8% of the time and got 13 strikeouts. both are reliable off-speed pitches and give Keller some options when he gets into two strike counts. It puts the batter in an uncomfortable position because both pitches have about the same movement, but the slider is five miles per hour faster than the curveball. This could have the hitter off-balance not knowing which pitch to expect. If Keller can keep hitters off-balance over the course of a full season, that will allow him to have success at the major league level.
Keller's 2020 season is not only a big year for him personally but for the Pirates as well. Keller is the team's #1 prospect according to Baseball America and his success or failure can change the direction that general manager Ben Cherrington will take. If Keller is a success, the starting rotation could be these five pitchers for years to come. However, if Keller struggles, the Pirates might have to search for starting pitching options outside of the organization.
Prediction: 10-4, 3.14 ERA
After seeing the improvements Keller made late in the season last year, I see him continuing to get better and slide into his role as one of the aces of the Pirates staff. His top notch control is the thing I feel will help put him over the top because he isn't going to put many unnecessary batters on the base paths. The question will be, is he able to limit the number of hits he gives up and ultimately the number of runs he allows.
As of now, the season is expected to begin somewhere around May 25th. Until then, we will continue to look at the men who make up this year's team and their contributions in 2020.
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