After Injury Ladent Season, Trevor Williams is Back and Ready to Go for 2020
During the second half of the 2018 regular season, there was no pitcher in Major League Baseball better than Trevor Williams. He had the best ERA of any pitcher in MLB, with a 1.19 ERA over the second half of the season, and many expected that he would continue those numbers into the 2019 season. With veterans like Joe Musgrove and Chris Archer joining Williams, it was projected that the Pirates would have one of the better starting rotations in Major League Baseball.
He kicked off the 2019 season throwing six shut out innings against the Cincinnati Reds, and had five quality sarts through his first six appearances pitching to a 3.38 ERA. However, he had to leave his May 16th start and was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right side strain. He would come back in Mid-June after a short rehab assignment and was never the same for the rest of the season. He only had eight quality starts in his final 17 appearances and he saw his ERA balloon to 5.38 by season's end.
Whether it was the side strain, or he just lost his mojo something happened that caused Williams to slip. Signs point towards the injury effecting him because his final two starts were two of his best starts of the regular season. He gave up two runs each time out and lasted five innings and seven innings giving him confidence going into the off-season. Williams is another pitcher who is not going to blow things by you on the mound, so he uses his location and pitch selection to put batters out of whack.
Williams lives and dies by his fastball and he usually starts off the at bat with the pitch. Overall, he throws his four-seamer 51.9% of the time and works it hugh and outside to lefties and up and in to right handers. The main difference between 2018 and 2019 is the fact that opponents weren't fooled by the pitch in 2019. They hit 55 points higher against the fastball on 2019 and hit 14 home runs, double what they hit against his fastball in 2018. However, opponents swung and missed at the fastball 23.7% of the time, which is up six percent from last season.
His slider and his changeup are his next two most used pitches in his arsenal and the type of pitch he uses seems to depend on the hitter. He likes to work the slider down and in to righties, throwing the pitch 386 times compared to 81 against lefties, while he works the changeup down and in to lefties, throwing the pitch 241 times to left handers as compared to 41 times to righties. Williams is a pitcher who is looking to get groundballs and working low in the zone helps him achieve that.
Part of William's struggles might be able to be explained by the balls that opposing hitters put in play. Williams BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) last season was .308 last season, which was his highest allowed since his Rookie season. Williams was getting the ground balls he wanted but, unfortunately for him, the ball wasn't finding his fielder's gloves. Williams only allowed a hard hit percentage of 31.8% last season, down four percent from the year before, so he wasn't getting hit hard, pitches were just finding holes in the Pirates defense.
Things haven't gone Williams way in four spring training appearances, where he currently holds a 9.00 ERA in nine innings of work, but he has shown signs of improvement. With the Pirates projecting to have a stronger defensive team then they have had in years past, this might help Williams as he continues to generate ground ball outs. He just has to make sure that the grounders he is generating end up finding gloves rather than finding holes.
Williams's spring training has been a roller coaster despite what the numbers say. Of his nine runs allowed before spring was cut off, eight of those nine runs came in two separate outings. His other two saw him go three innings and give up one earned run or less each time out. Spring training is a time for players to work on pitches and get ready for the season, so we will wait to see which Williams comes out in 2020
Prediction: 9-4 3.24 ERA
I think the 2018 Trevor Williams was the man we can expect to see now and in the future. Look for him to struggle over his first couple starts of the season as he gets back into things, but then he will find his way and get back to the Williams of old. He will be a solid #3 option for the bucs this season and for the near future as he brings his beard and his new flow year in and year out.
As of now, the season is expected to begin somewhere around May 25th. Until then, we will continue to look at the men who make up this year's team and their contributions in 2020.
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