Prospect Watch: Cody Ponce Looking to Develop into Full-Time Starter in 2020
Over the last several seasons, the Pittsburgh Pirates have started another rebuild as they are stockpiling minor league talent trying to get back to the winning organization they were in the early 2010's. They picked up several top prospects from around the league, trading away guys like Andrew McCutchen, Gerritt Cole, and Starling Marte to acquire talent. One of those hard-throwing prospects they picked up was Cody Ponce in a July 29th trade that sent Jordan Lyles to the division rival Milwaukee Brewers.
Ponce's career in the Brewers organization had seemed to go stagnant, as 2019 marked his third straight season pitching in Double A. The move to the Pirates sent Ponce into a whirlwind of movement as he went from the bullpen back to the starting rotation, and quickly made the jump to Triple A Indianapolis. For many players, the constant movement would have sent their heads spinning, but for Ponce it is just the way he likes it. "I don't like not moving," Ponce said in an interview with Trib Total Media. "Keep me moving and I'm happy. It was a whirlwind getting to know the new organization and my teammates, while also trying to build relationships with them."
Ponce was drafted by the Brewers in the 2nd round of the 2015 Major League Baseball draft and was assigned to the Helena Brewers, the rookie ball team for the organization. After pitching just two games for Helena, Ponce quickly made the jump to the Class A Short-Season Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. He had a strong first season with the Rattlers going 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 12 games, seven starts. He showed great control walking just nine batters in 46 innings of work and struck out a promising 36 batters while producing an impressive 1.13 WHIP.
His career kept moving right along as he moved up to the Class A Advanced Brevard County Manatees. His ERA inflated to 5.82 in 17 starts, but his strikeout numbers saw a jump as he struck out 69 batters in 72 innings of work while walking just 17 batters. However, he allowed more hits than innings pitched, resulting in more runs being scored against him. He would stay in single A to start the 2018 season and made 22 starts for the Manatees dropping his ERA to 3.72 in 22 starts. It was the best season of his professional career as he worked in 120 innings and struck out a career high 94 batters. As a result of his success, Ponce finished 2018 with three games pitched in Double A.
2019 saw him start his first full season with the Double A Biloxi Shuckers where he made the transition from the starting rotation to the bullpen. He appeared in 27 games out of the bullpen for the Shuckers and struck out 44 batters in 38.1 innings of work while pitching to a 3.29 ERA. He featured a 1.17 WHIP and continued to show strong control with just 12 walks. Then, Ponce made the move to the Pittsburgh Pirates organization and, after just three games in Altoona, he made his Triple-A Debut with the Indianapolis Indians and returned to the starting rotation.
He made four starts for the Indians late in 2019, and went 1-3 with a 5.30 ERA in 18 innings of work. He kept up the strikeout rate that he has been showing the last couple seasons with 20 in those 18 innings of work while walking seven batters. Ponce continued his work into the Arizona Fall League where he made five starts for the Peoria Javelins and had his best start to end the season giving up one run in five innings of work. As he enters 2020, Ponce is determined to continue to move up and see time in either the starting rotation or the bullpen at the Major League level.
It seems like the Pirates are going to stick with Ponce as a starting pitcher moving forward which allows him to use his four pitch repertoire. His top pitch is his four-seam fastball, which tops out at around 95 miles per hour. If he can hit that speed on a consistent basis, it can help him balance out his off-speed stuff. Ponce also features a cutter, slider, and change-up that he mixes in intermittently. During his move to the bullpen in the Milwaukee Brewers organization, he cut out the change-up to help him limit his arsenal to get quicker outs. Now that he is back in the starting rotation, he can bring back what he called his best pitch coming out of college and it gives him another weapon to throw at opposing hitters.
Ponce was throwing well in his first big league camp in 2020 appearing in four games for the Bucs and allowing two runs in 4.2 innings of work while striking out five batters and walking just two. With only four games played at the Triple-A level, Ponce will more than likely head back down to Indianapolis where he will hone his craft as a starting pitcher. He may be called upon for a spot start or two, but 2020 will more or less be focusing on working on things he needs to improve upon before he can make that full time jump.
Prediction: 9-4 3.55 ERA (19 starts Triple A)
I do not think 2020 is the year Cody Ponce will make his MLB debut with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Even with the possibility of double headers being played more often, I feel there are several other pitchers in the system who would get the call before Ponce. However, I think 2020 will be a year where Ponce finds out who he is in Triple A and puts it all together. Look for his strikeout rate to continue to go up and his control to stay strong. If he is able to limit the amount of hits he gives up, he will be primed and ready to compete for a spot on the roster during the 2021 season.
As of now, the season is expected to begin somewhere around May 25th. Until then, we will continue to look at the men who make up this year's team and their contributions in 2020.
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