Prospect Watch: Offense is a Priority for Christian Kelley in 2020
Looking at the catching prospects in the Pirates farm system, there are no names that really jump out at you. Many of them are strong defensive players, but their bats have been unable to turn the corner with their defensive development. The closest of those prospects to the Major Leagues is 26-year old Christian Kelley, who served as the starting catcher at Triple-A Indianapolis last season. His offensive numbers took a turn for the worst while his defensive numbers continued to trend upward as he continued to develop to try and provide some much-needed catching depth for the Big League club.
Last season for Indianapolis, Kelley batted a career-low .179 with five home runs and 21 RBI. His on-base percentage was a measly .251 and his slugging wasn't much better at .281. However, his defense continued to be strong as he posted a .992 fielding percentage, marking the fourth straight season with a fielding percentage over .990. Kelley was another defensive-first selection by Neil Huntington who never has been able to develop the offensive side of his game. He showed promise when he was taken in the 11th round of the 2015 MLB draft as a sophomore from California Poly Ponoma.
Kelley played two years of baseball at Cal Poly Ponoma and his two seasons were like night and day. He struggled during his freshman year hitting just .200 with 0 Home Runs and 2 RBI in 26 games played for the Broncos. However, the very next season his playing time jumped as did his offensive stats. He raised his average to .341 with two home runs and 28 RBI in 54 games as Cal Poly Ponoma's starting catcher. Teams noticed the jump in batting average and Kelley started getting looks around the league. The Pirates saw his defensive ability, and the increase in his offensive stats, and took a chance on him in the 11th round of the 2015 MLB Draft.
He signed right away and was sent to the Class-A Short Season West Virginia Black Bears. He would appear in 54 games for the Black Bears, 51 starts, during that season, and hit .232 with no home runs and 21 RBI. His average was right about where the Pirates expected it, but he wasn't showing much power at all. He had just one extra-base hit that season with the other 44 hits he got all being singles. He did show good plate discipline with 25 walks and a .330 on-base percentage in 194 at-bats. However, while his discipline was good, he struck out more times than you would like with 43 during that season.
The offense was right where the Pirates expected it to be, but the defense was sub-par at best. His fielding percentage sat at .982 and he committed eight errors and allowed 14 pass balls during that season. He appeared in 469 innings behind the plate and registered 382 putouts and 52 assists during that span. He did a below-average job at managing the run game catching 19 of 73 stolen base attempts (26% caught stealing percentage). Despite his struggles on the defensive side of the ball, Kelley would get the call to Class-A Full Season West Virginia Power the following season.
His average would continue to climb and, in 77 games, he hit .236 with two home runs and 28 RBI. He hit the first home run of his professional career and, after only getting one extra-base hit a year ago, he tapped into some of his power. He had 14 extra-base hits total with 12 of those being doubles leading to a .310 on-base percentage. Kelley has never been a true power threat, but the doubles we're nice to see as it helps make him a more marketable hitter. However, with the power came more strikeouts and Kelley had a 23% strikeout rate that season. While his offense was trending up, his defense got back to its normal numbers as well.
He put together a .990 fielding percentage committing seven errors in 676.2 innings of work. He lowered the number of passed balls he allowed (7) and picked up a career-high 552 outputs. Kelley also did a better job of controlling the run game with a 36% caught stealing percentage, catching 40 out of 111 stolen base opportunities. As Kelley got back on track, and the Pirates need for catching depth grew stronger, he got promoted to Advanced-A Bradenton by the end of the season, giving him the opportunity to get his feet wet at the next stage of his development.
The jump was good for Kelley and the Marauders as he has the best stretch of his professional career. He appeared in nine games for Bradenton hitting .355 (11-31) with five RBI in 31 at-bats. He struck out just nine times and walked two with a .371 on-base percentage. The early call-up prepared him for his full-time arrival to Bradenton in 2017. He set a new career-high for a full season hitting .243 with two home runs and 39 RBI in 92 games. He was once again in double digits in doubles with 11 and set a new career-high with 39 walks. On the defensive side of the ball, Kelley was also setting career-highs with a .991 fielding percentage, committing seven errors in 781 innings of work.
The 2018 season, would see him make the jump to Double-A Altoona as he looked to go from low-level prospect to getting ready for the Major Leagues. His defensive game made the transition nicely as his fielding percentage and run game control both saw increases. He committed just five errors in 774.2 innings of work while grabbing 706 putouts. His caught stealing percentage was at 25%, catching 23 of the 91 stolen base attempts against him. His average would drop off slightly, but his power numbers were higher than they had ever been before.
He set new career-highs in home runs and RBI, but his average dipped to .235 with an on-base percentage of .308. He hit eight home runs and drove in 38 RBI and he showed that he has the ability to be an average power hitter. In total, he set a career-high with 23 extra-base hits including 12 doubles and two triples. He dropped his strikeout rate to 20.6% and was hitting the ball at a healthy clip with a contact percentage of 79.4%. However, his plate discipline dropped a little bit as he walked just 25 times in those 311 at-bats. He doesn't see a lot of pitches, with just over 3.5 seen per at-bat, so he doesn't get the opportunity to work deep into counts.
Still, with his production numbers going up, Kelley was promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis last season and started the season splitting time with Jacob Stallings before taking over the position full-time. However, his numbers took a dip for the worst, and Kelley hit just .179 with five home runs and 21 RBI. The production numbers were still higher than they had been in the past, but he was unable to increase that batting average. His strikeout rate also went up as he struck out 79 times in 252 at-bats while walking just 21 times. On the defensive side of the ball, Kelley performed well with a .992 fielding percentage while cutting down 28.7% of base runners.
After having a whole off-season to work on his struggles, Kelley entered his fourth Big League Spring Training ready to turn things around. Before camps were suspended, Kelley was having the best Spring Training of his career. In eight games for the Pirates, he hit .333 (3-9) with two RBI while picking up one extra-base hit. He survived the first round of Spring Training cuts, but mostly because you need as many catchers in camp as you can get. As of right now, it looks like Kelley is the fifth man in the Pirates depth chart and will be splitting reps with off-season signing Andrew Susac in Indianapolis.
The big thing Kelley needs to work on is finding himself on the offensive side of the game. Defensively, he is ready to be called up to the Major Leagues, however, a batting average below the Mendoza line isn't going to cut it as a starter or even a back-up catcher at the Major League level. When everything is working right, Kelley is a guy who can hit for a little bit of power with a decent batting average. If his bat can't find a way to turn things around, Kelley could turn into another draft bust for the Pirates. Catching is one of the spots in the Pirates minor league system that needs the most reinforcements. If Kelley can turn things around, it will help add another piece to that Minor League system.
Prediction: .235, 10 HR, 39 RBI (Triple-A)
In 2020, I see Christian Kelley getting his average back to where it has been the last several seasons while seeing an increase in power. Look for Kelley to have his first multi-home run season while setting a new career-high in RBI. His batting average should return to where it has been at other levels of the Minor League system and I look for his defense to keep improving. I think the biggest help for Kelley will be the off-season editions of Susac and John Ryan Murphy. Both guys have experience at the Big League level and can offer Kelley advice as he continues to develop at Triple-A.
It is still uncertain as to when the 2020 MLB season is set to begin, but we at Buccos Cove are determined to continue to bring you strong content. Until the 2020 season begins, we will continue looking at the players who make up the 2020 Pirates organization and how they will impact the organization this season.
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