What Will the Starting Rotation Look Like Without Archer

With the news breaking yesterday that Pirates right-hander Chris Archer will miss the entire season due to shoulder surgery, it threw a wrench in the Pirates starting rotation plans. Already without Jameson Taillon, what will the new rotation look like minus Archer?

Even before Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Union come to an agreement on the 2020 season, the Pittsburgh Pirates were dealt some bad news on Wednesday afternoon. They learned that they would be without veteran starting pitcher Chris Archer for the duration of the 2020 season. Archer had to undergo surgery to relieve pain caused by thoracic outlet syndrome. While we wish Archer the best and hope he begins to feel better soon, it threw a wrench in the Pirates starting rotation this season, should an agreement be reached and games be played. Prior to this injury it was looking like the rotation would consist of Joe Musgrove, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams, Mitch Keller, and then a battle for the fifth spot between Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, and a few other names.

With the team already missing its ace Jameson Taillon, the latest news throws into question who will take Archer's place in the rotation. The injury almost certainly guarantees non-roster invitee Derek Holland a spot in the starting rotation, if he is healthy following his Spring Training injury. With Chad Kuhl slated to start the year in the bullpen, it throws into question who will join the rotation and get to make an impact in Pittsburgh in 2020. The list includes some players who have been on the brink the last couple of seasons as well as some young budding prospects that are looking to break into the Major Leagues. Here is a list of a couple of those names that could fill the spot. 

#1 Steven Brault

Brault is the guy with the most experience on this list, and probably has the best opportunity to win the spot. While his numbers haven't been shiny over the last couple of seasons, he has put in solid work in a Pirates uniform. Last season, between the starting rotation and the bullpen, Brault would end up going 4-6 with a 5.16 ERA while walking 53 and striking out a career-high 100 batters in 113.1 innings of work. Brault has been jumping back and forth between the bullpen and the starting rotation for the last couple of seasons, but he had his first true success as a starter at the Major League level last season.

With all the injuries, the Pirates needed someone to step up and Brault did just that becoming one of the team's most consistent starters. He had a stretch from June to August where he turned in five quality starts in six opportunities while posting ERAs under four in each month. Brault won't blow you away with speed or stuff, but he has enough to be able to get by and deceive hitters at the Big League level. If he has fully recovered from an arm injury suffered during Spring Training, he is probably going to be the one the Pirates choose to take over the spot in the starting rotation.

#2 Chris Stratton

While most of his work has been in the bullpen throughout his career, Chris Stratton has experience throwing in the starting rotation. He appeared in 28 games, 26 starts during the 2018 season and went 10-10 with a 5.09 ERA. He worked in just over 145 innings of work and walked 54 batters while striking out 112 batters. His stats drastically improved after his trade to Pittsburgh last season as his ERA went from 8.19 to 3.66 while his strikeout rate went up and his walk rate went down leading to success on the mound. While most of this success came in the bullpen, he worked on getting his spin rate up last season, and that should help him transition well as a starter.

With Stratton's fastball only hitting in the low-90s, he also relies on his off-speed stuff to get ahead of hitters. His curveball and his slider were his two most effective pitches last season and generated opponent batting averages of .261 and .291 respectively. Both pitches generated 16 strikeouts each and they went from a secondary pitch to a primary pitch by the end of the season. Stratton could slide into the number five spot in the starting rotation and hold down the fort for one season. Stratton would in no way be a long-term solution, but he could turn into a one-year patch in the rotation for the Pirates.

#3 James Marvel

This is probably the least likely of the three options on this list but, after a breakout year in 2019, Marvel's name is worth mentioning in this conversation. It is rare that the Pirates give a rookie a chance right out of Spring Training, but with a season full of uncertainty it could be a real possibility. Although his numbers at the Major League level weren't that good in a small sample size, his work in the Minor Leagues was outstanding as he pitched between Double-A and Triple-A before heading to the Pirates in September. Between the two levels, Marvel went 16-5 with a career-low 2.94 ERA in 28 starts. He was also named the organization's Minor League pitcher of the year and could ride that award right to the Major League level.

Whoever takes over for Chris Archer, will have a prime opportunity to earn a long-term starting rotation spot. With Archer's contract ending at the end of the season, my thought is that he jas thrown his last game in a Pirates uniform. The trade that brought Archer to Pittsburgh will probably go down as one of the worst trades in Pirates history as they sent two players of the future who have become stars for the Tampa Bay Rays. However, this opportunity gives the Pirates the chance to make up for that mistake and give the guy who replaces Archer a chance to either rekindle or jump-start their Major League career.

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