Pirates Return Home to Face Brewers: What to Expect

After picking up a win in the finale of the three-game series in St. Louis, the Pirates return home to PNC Park. Awaiting them is a team who has had their number for the past several seasons in the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are riding high after their first victory of 2020. They defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 5-1 in the series finale and, while you don't want to lose too many series this year, it is good to get that first win under their belts. They now return home to PNC Park to open the home half of their schedule, but a not so easy opponent awaits them. The Pirates entertain the Milwaukee Brewers, a team they went just 4-15 against last year as they look to pick up back-to-back victories. The good news, the Brewers also enter the game with a record of 1-2, the bad news the Pirates have not had a lot of success against the Brewers in the past.

Even though it is the fourth game of the season, it is a big series for both teams involved. A 4-2 or 3-3 start propels them to the top of the NL Central while a 1-5 or 2-4 start has them fighting to catch up from the get-go. Both teams have been streaky with the bats, and the bullpen has been shaky late in ball games. It will be interesting to see which team steps up and takes control of the season early on and which ends up falling behind the eight ball. Here is what to expect as the Pirates start their first series of 2020 in the friendly confines of PNC Park against the Brewers.

Break the Curse of Milwaukee

To say the Pirates have been bad against the Brewers over the last decade would be an understatement. In 181 matchups between the two teams, the Pirates have gone just 76-105, including a dismal 4-15 record against the Brew Crew last season. Whether the team was at Miller Park or PNC Park, things just didn't seem to go the Pirates way. At PNC Park, the Pirates went 3-7 while on the road they went 1-8. The Brewers just brought more firepower at the plate more often than not and left the Bucs battling from behind for a majority of the game. When you get down early, it is very hard to recover and that is what cursed the Pirates throughout the series.

However, in the games where the Pirates did pick up wins, the offense produced scoring six or more runs each time out. The key to breaking the curse, score more runs! In the first series of the year, the middle of the order has been producing. Colin Moran, Josh Bell, and Jose Osuna combined to go 9-29 (.310) with two home runs and five RBI. However, they weren't being set up very well throughout the series as the upper third of the order struggled mightily. Adam Frazier, Kevin Newman, and Bryan Reynolds combined to go just 3-29 (.103) meaning people weren't on base for the middle of the order. This put more pressure on the bottom-third of the order, instead of allowing the big boppers to get their shot with runners on base. 

With that being said, if the Pirates are going to break the curse of Milwaukee the top third of the batting order is going to have to get on base. If Frazier, Newman, and Reynolds can get on base more consistently, this will allow for Moran, Bell, and Osuna to be able to drive in more runs. Runs are going to be more important than ever this year, especially with a young pitching staff, and the offense is going to need to be relied on. If the Pirates can score runs early and often, the curse of Milwaukee has a real chance to be broken and the Pirates can put themselves in a good position to start the season.

Bullpen Ride the Momentum

Coming into Sunday's game, the Pirates bullpen had been struggling in the exhibition season and the first two games of the year. They allowed four runs in their first 6.2 innings of work and were pitching to a 5.40 ERA. However, all that changed when a rookie by the name of JT Brubaker made his Major League debut in the finale of the three games in St. Louis. Brubaker threw two scoreless innings and kicked off a string of four scoreless innings that ended the series with a win. With runs being more important than ever in this series, the Pirates are going to be relying on their bullpen to hold leads and keep them in the game.

The Pirates have some talent in their bullpen, but it just hasn't manifested on the field. They are already without closer Keone Kela and have been forced to piece together their late-inning relievers. They have seen opposite ends of the spectrum with some thriving while others are sinking. Kyle Crick was the pitcher with the most experience out of the closer candidate so he was given first dibs. However, he hasn't been able to take hold of the position and has an ERA of 22.50 and has given up nine runs, five earned, in his last two innings of work. His only appearance in the regular season so far saw him give up four unearned runs in the second game of the season. Crick has just been all over the place and needs to focus on finding his control so he can get back to the pitcher he was in 2018.

On the other hand, Nick Burdi has taken full advantage of his opportunities and, although it wasn't an official save situation, he came in and handled the ninth inning today. He has consistently hit 99 miles per hour since returning from last season's injury and has shown good life on his fastball. He struck out the side in his season debut. He chewed right through the middle of the Cardinals lineup setting down Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, and Matt Carpenter to end the game. The outing gave him a major confidence boost and showed that he can handle late-game situations with his team ahead. He and the rest of the bullpen will be relied on again to shut down the Brew Crew.

Players to Watch:

Pittsburgh: IF Colin Moran

As the 2020 season finally kicked off, infielder Colin Moran has brought a hot bat out of summer camp. He jumpstarted the offense with a home run yesterday, and so far is hitting .363 with one home run and one RBI. Moran's offense has been consistent over his first two years in a Pirates uniform, but the power that he was said to have had has not translated. In his first two seasons, he hit just 24 home runs, with a career-high 23 last season. However, while the home run power hasn't been there, he has done a nice job of hitting the big gaps at PNC Park. He finished third on the team last season with 30 doubles and second on the team with a .316 average with runners in scoring position. With offense being key to the series, Moran is going to be a big player to jump-start the offense.

Milwaukee Brewers: IF Orlando Arcia

The Milwaukee Brewers had some streaky hitting in their series with the Chicago Cubs, but one consistent was outfielder Orlando Arcia. In the three-game series, he went 4-10 with one RBI as he got his season started off strong. His biggest day came on Opening Day when he set the table going 3-3 with three singles while not striking out. His first and only RBI of the year came in the team's series finale on Sunday. The hit came in the top of the fifth after the team was down 5-0 and looking for some offense. It would be all the team could muster against Cubs starter Tyler Chatwood. Arcia has been hitting in the lower third of the Brewers order but is looking to move up and be a catalyst for the team.

The Pirates and the Brewers will battle in the first game of their three-game series tonight at 7:05 pm. For the Pirates, we will see the first piggy-back start of the year as Steven Brault (0-0) gets the call to start, while the Brewers counter with Adrian Houser (0-0). The game can be seen on AT&T Sportsnet and heard on 93.7 the Fan. Follow along with Home Opener coverage all day long on our Facebook, Buccos Cove, and Twitter, @Buccos_Cove, using the #OpeningwiththeCove.