Pirates vs. Cardinals: What to Expect in the Opening Series
It is official, baseball is back! The 2020 season kicked off tonight, and the Pittsburgh Pirates will start their 60-game slate tomorrow when they head to St. Louis to take on the Cardinals. Over the last six seasons, the Cardinals have owned the Pirates going 67-46 against are beloved Bucs. The last time the Pirates didn't have a losing record against St. Louis was in 2013 when they went 12-12, and their last winning season against the Cardinals was 2011 when they went 9-7. 2019 was the worst season yet for the Pirates in the all-time match-up as they went just 5-14 against the Cardinals in 19 matchups.
So, how do the Pirates turn the tide and get back to at least competing with one of the top teams in the National League Central? It is going to rely on the strength of the Pirate's young players. Looking at the roster, the Pirates only have three players over the age of 30, so this is a very young team. The benefit is this group is going to be able to grow and mature together. However, the bad news is that they aren't as experienced as teams like the Cardinals and are susceptible to growing pains. The three-game series kicks off tomorrow at 7:05 pm, so here are the keys to success as we head into the first series of the year
Limit the Cardinals Power
Looking at the St. Louis lineup, there is a lot of power to go around from guys like Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, and Kolten Wong. One swing of the bat can completely change the momentum and the Pirates pitchers can not allow this to happen. While the Pirates offense looks promising this year, they don't have the proven firepower to go blow for blow with the Cardinals, at least on paper. Luckily for the Pirates, they are a team that likes to work low in the zone, which is a good combatant to a potent lineup.
The main power threats that you have to watch out for are Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter. These are two players you don't want up with runners on base, and both have been Pirates killers in the past. Paul Goldschmidt came to the Cardinals last season and had a down year, but still hit .260 with 34 home runs and 97 RBI. However, against the Pirates, he raked hitting .388 with seven home runs and 20 RBI. That was his best mark against any team last year and the Pirates are going to have to learn how to pitch to him this year. With a guy like him, you have to figure that he is going to get his hits and hope no one is on base when he does.
The other name on the Pirates radar should be Matt Carpenter. Carpenter is another guy who has killed the Pirates over the years but is looking for a bounce-back season in 2020. Last year, he only hit .226 with 15 home runs and 46 RBI as injuries slowed him down throughout the year. However, Carpenter has been consistently good over the years and had a career-high 36 home runs during the 2018 season. Carpenter is another guy that you want to come to the plate with no one on, and if the Pirates can isolate him and Goldschmidt, they will be putting themselves in a better position to win
Score Early and Score Often
If there is one thing the Pirates did well in their exhibition series with Cleveland, it was getting ahead early. They scored the first run in two of the three games and forced the Indians to play from behind. However, it is not enough to score first, you have to keep scoring throughout the game. In the three games with the Indians, the offense scored 13 runs, which isn't bad for a series, but they did not win any of those games. The problem, of the 13 runs scored in the series seven of them came in the fifth inning or earlier. This allowed the Indians plenty of time to really back, and they did against a dismal looking Pirates bullpen.
Because of this, the offense is going to have to focus on scoring runs not only early on, but throughout the game as well. Granted, they won't be making as many switches as they did in those games and guys like Josh Bell and Bryan Reynolds will get three or four at-bats rather than one or two. Those will be the two guys the Pirates rely on this season to get the job done. Bell is coming off a career-year that saw him hit .277 with 37 home runs and 116 RBI before being shut down in mid-September. Bell finished sixth in the National League in RBI last season and should see time at both first base and DH this year. If he can do even half of what he did in the first half last season, when he hit 24 of his 37 home runs, the Pirates will be in good shape. He had a couple of doubles and a home run in the two exhibition games against Cleveland and looked in Mid-Season form.
2020 will be a big year for Bryan Reynolds as he tries to prove that he is not just a one-hit-wonder. He had an incredible rookie season, hitting .314 with 16 home runs and 68 RBI while finishing fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting. The question of whether or not he can repeat his success could be revealed by his Minor League numbers. In his four seasons in professional baseball, Reynolds has never had a batting average below .300 at any level of the Minor Leagues. His power was better than expected, but he has shown some in the past with his previous career-high being 10 in Advanced-A ball. Reynolds has been proving people wrong his whole career and is looking to be a budding star for the Pirates in 2020.
Starters Need to Go Deep in Games
With the recent bullpen struggles, more pressure is going to be put on the starters to go deeper into games and give the Pirates a chance to win games. With the recent struggles of the Pirates bullpen, this becomes more important than ever. Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, and Mitch Keller are the three men projected to take the hill, and all three need to be ready for the long haul. Musgrove has shown an ability to do this going six or more innings 18 times last year, but he will have to do it on a more consistent basis this year. He is the team's ace and had a career-year last year going 11-12 with a 4.44 ERA. He brings a fire and passion to the team that is unmatched and, with a new wind-up this year, looks to grow into the ace role.
As for Trevor Williams, he has shown glimpses of greatness but hasn't been able to put it together for a full year. Last year was an injury-ridden season for the right-hander that saw him go just 7-9 with a 5.38 ERA over 145.2 innings of work. Williams has been a workhorse throughout his career and will once again be asked to eat a lot of innings this year. He would love to get back to his second-half of 2018 numbers when he pitched to a 1.84 ERA over 12 starts, becoming the 22nd pitcher in organizational history to accomplish a sub-two post-all-star game ERA. However, if he can do even half of that, he will be a solid number two option.
As for Mitch Keller, he has a lot of work to do to prove that he can live up to his #1 overall prospect status. He had a rude awakening to MLB last season when he posted a 7.13 ERA and went just 1-5 over 12 starts. After a rough start and a few stints back down in the Minor Leagues, Keller was able to put it together by the end of the year. During the month of September, he pitched to a 4.32 ERA during the month and turned in two quality starts. Keller has the stuff to be successful at the Major League level and he is looking to use that in 2020. If all three of these guys can last at least six innings with a lead, I feel the Pirates will have a good chance at winning the series.
Series Prediction: Cardinals Take Two of Three
As much as I want to see the Pirates succeed and get off to a hot start, they have to prove it on the field first. I feel like the Pirates will have a good chance of picking up an Opening Day win, but I am predicting the Cardinals take the final two games. Joe Musgrove looked really good in his final tune-up with three scoreless innings and should give the Pirates a chance to win on Opening Day. However, the Cardinals offense is just too good to say that Williams and Keller will come out and pitch as well as I think Williams will. The Pirates will score a lot of runs, but I see the pitching as the fault in this series.
The Pirates open their 2020 schedule tonight in St. Louis with first pitch scheduled for 8:15 pm. Joe Musgrove (0-0) gets things started for the Pirates and he will be opposed by Jack Flaherty (0-0) of the Cardinals. The game can be watched on AT&T Sportsnet and heard on 93.7 The Fan.
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