Predicting the 2020 Pittsburgh Pirates Starting Rotation

Spring Training 2.0 starts today, and with it comes the optimism of a long-awaited 2020 Pittsburgh Pirates season. With Opening Day just 23 or 24 days away, it's time to start predicting what the 2020 Pirates starting rotation will look like as the team heads into the season.

Last year, the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation looked to be a strength of the team heading into the season. They had five starting pitchers who had all had experience and at least some track record of success in the Major Leagues. However, injuries around the field destroyed any hope of a good starting rotation and as they say, the rest was history. Entering the 2020 season, the optimism surrounding the starting rotation couldn't be any different. The Pirates are already without Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer this season leaving them with two big holes in their starting five. This season, the team will be counting on young guys to step in and fill those very big shoes.

We continue our series of predicting the Pittsburgh Pirates Opening Day roster as we take a look at my picks for the Startin Rotation on Day one. For this list, I am going to pick five starters and one sixth starter who I believe will be on the team whether in the rotation at some point or in the bullpen. With the new 30-man roster to start the season, it offers the Pirates flexibility on who they can throw out there every day. As a reminder of the names I have already predicted, here is who is on my roster now. Granted, some of these picks may or may not be on the Spring Training roster released earlier this week, but in the spirit of being true, I will keep those guys on the list.

Batting Order
1. SS Kevin Newman
2. 2B Adam Frazier
3. LF Bryan Reynolds
4. DH Josh Bell
5. 3B Colin Moran
6. RF Gregory Polanco
7. 1B Will Craig
8. C Jacob Stallings
9. CF Jarrod Dyson

With those nine already picked, we expand the roster to 15 as we take a look at my predictions for the starting rotation and the sixth starter swing pitcher.

Opening Day Starter: #59 Joe Musgrove

Since he came to Pittsburgh, Joe Musgrove's fire and passion for the game has made him a fan favorite on the mound. In his first two seasons in Pittsburgh, he has had his ups and downs going 17-21 with a 4.28 ERA in 285.2 innings of work. He has shown a decent strikeout rate at 21.3% and his walk rate has been just as good at 5.1%. He has held opponents to a respectable .253 average against in Pittsburgh, but his emotions have gotten the best of him at times and he is susceptible to giving up the big inning. As the guy with the most big-game experience, I look for Joe Musgrove to be the guy taking the hill on Opening Day for the Pirates

#2 Starter: #23 Mitch Keller

My next pick for the Pirates starting rotation calls to the youth on the team as Mitch Keller enters his first full Major League season. Keller made his Major League debut on May 27th of last year and brought with him a lot of hype. Initially, he got blown up giving up six earned runs in his first inning of work, and it looked like he wouldn't get out of the first. However, he would bounce back with 5.0 scoreless innings of one-hit ball and left the start with his head held high. He would finish the year with an unimpressive 1-5 record and a 7.13 ERA, but a deeper look into his stats will show he pitched much better than that. He got better as the season went on and ended the year with his best start of the season when he went five innings giving up one earned run while walking two and striking out seven. With a full off-season to prepare for the Major Leagues, I believe Keller will bounce back strong and be a solid number two guy.

#3 Starter: #34 Trevor Williams

Trevor Williams had a breakout season in 2018 and has been trying to work back to that form ever since. Looking at the five men on this list, Williams is the longest-tenured Pirate spending each of the last four seasons in a Pirates uniform. During that stretch, he has gone 29-29 with a 4.22 ERA in 479.1 innings of work. His walks have been a bit high during that stretch, 156 total, and his strikeouts aren't that impressive, 367, but he is a guy who can get outs when he needs them. Opponents hit just .258 against him in his career and he has proven that he can be an elite starting pitcher. During that 2018 season, he posted a 3.11 ERA while going 14-10. After the 2018 All-Star break, he had one of the lowest ERAs in Major League Baseball and was absolutely lights out. I'm not looking for him to completely return to those numbers this season, but if he can do half of what he did in the second half of 2018, he will be a big boost in the middle of the rotation.

#4 Starter: #49 Derek Holland

Derek Holland is the newest reclamation project that the Pirates will be working on during the 2020 season. Holland has had a long Major League career, spanning 11 seasons, but lately has not been able to find the mojo that he had early in his career. Last season, he played for both the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants and combined to go 2-5 with a 6.08 ERA. He was signed as a Minor League free agent this off-season and had a decent showing in four games posting a 3.95 ERA in 13.2 innings of work. Holland had some of his best years in the Major Leagues from 2011 through 2014 before injuries derailed his career. He is looking to get back to those numbers as he renews his career with the Pirates in 2020.

#5 starter: #43 Steven Brault

Steven Brault is one pitcher that the Coronavirus delay actually ended up helping in the end. He suffered a shoulder injury in Spring Training and, had the season went on as planned, he probably would have missed at least the first month of the season. With Spring Training 2.0 now set to start, Brault is healthy and more than likely in the Pirates starting rotation. He spent parts of the last four seasons in a Pirates uniform and combined to go 11-12 with a 4.88 ERA while working in 273 innings of work. He has shown flashes of success on the field, but nothing that was entirely consistent. He seemed to find himself towards the middle of last season and he pitched to an ERA under three in June, July, and August. 2020 could be his chance to prove that he can be a member of a Major League starting rotation.

Swing Starter: #65 JT Brubaker

With the Pirates dealing with so many injuries this season, they are going to have to rely on their young pitching talent this season. With off-days coming few and far between, my pick for the Pirates #6 starter is top pitching prospect JT Brubaker. He has spent the last seven seasons in the Pirates Minor League system and has pitched to a 3.60 ERA and gone 31-28 during his professional career. He was named the Pirates Minor League Pitcher of the Year during the 2018 season when he went 10-6 with a 2.81 ERA in 28 starts between Double and Triple-A. Injuries are probably what prevented his Major League Debut last season but, with the circumstances surrounding the 2020 season, this could be his year to finally break into the big leagues.

That concludes our predictions of the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation for the 2020 season. This is a weird year and it could allow for a lot of the young pitchers to be able to break through at the Big Leagues. I feel that we are going to see a slew of different pitchers throughout the year, but here is a recap of what my starting five and swingman would look like:

1. #59 Joe Musgrove RHP
2. #23 Mitch Keller RHP
3. #34 Trevor Williams RHP
4. #49 Derek Holland LHP
5. #43 Steven Brault LHP
Swing Man: #65 JT Brubaker

As always, feel free to debate and let me know who you think will comprise the Pittsburgh Pirates' top six starting pitchers. Follow us on Facebook for more Pirates coverage every single day! The 2020 season is quickly approaching and we at Buccos Cove are ready to bring you Pirates coverage every day!

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