What The Starters Current Success Means for 2021
Pitching is one of the keys to any team's success, and for the Pirates, it is something they haven't really gotten a lot of this season. Entering play on Thursday, the Pirates rank 21st in the MLB in starters ERA (4.97) and 19th in Bullpen ERA (4.60). The struggles have been for a number of reasons including injuries that have hampered the entire pitching staff and some ineffectiveness throughout the organization. When the pitching isn't good, the offense has a lot of pressure to score runs, and guys can try to do too much at the plate. All of these things combine to put the Pirates where they stand now at 17-39 with the worst record in baseball.
However, something has clicked with the starting pitchers and it has led to some success for the Pirates. The team has won back-to-back games for the first time since September 6th and September 8th, with an off-day between, and if it weren't for the bullpen those numbers could be even better. Over their last six games, the starting pitchers have a combined ERA of 0.99, giving up four earned runs over their last 36.1 innings of work. It is a positive sign for Manager Derek Shelton and General Manager Ben Cherrington as their team heads into the off-season. Today, we look at what the success means for the future of the pitching staff and how the rotation may look in 2021.
Good Pitching Comes in Bunches
When one pitcher is doing well, all the other pitchers in the rotation seem to fall right in line trying to outdo each other. That seems to be the case with the Pirate's current run, with Steven Brault getting things started on September 17th against the St. Louis Cardinals. Brault was masterful in his first career complete game allowing just one run and striking out a career-high eight batters against the St. Louis Cardinals. Since that outing, only one starter for the Pirates has allowed more than two earned runs in a game. Chad Kuhl, Joe Musgrove, Mitch Keller, and even Trevor Williams have had strong outings on the mound. While it may not have led to a lot of Pirates wins, it gives the Pirates and their fans some hope heading into the off-season.
With all five pitchers, it seems their success is stemming from attacking the strike zone and trusting their stuff. In the last four games, the Pirates starters have walked three batters or less in every game and struck out at least six hitters in each game. Instead of focusing on gracing the corners and the bottom of the strike zone, they seem to be just trusting their stuff and throwing it for strikes. Now, that doesn't mean that they are going back to the old adage of pitching to contact that burned them in the late 2010s. Pitching coach Oscar Marin is working with each individual pitcher to find out what works and what doesn't in each situation.
You see Brault using more of a balance between his fastball and breaking stuff, and Musgrove ramping up the velocity to the 95 to 96 mile per hour range, which we haven't seen to this point in a Pirates uniform. For each pitcher, the recent success means something different for their future, whether that be for the Pirates or for another team. The Pirates are slated to have several of their injured players returning next season and there is going to be a lot of competition in 2021 Spring Training. Not only will the normal names like Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, and possibly Chris Archer all be back healthy, but where does a guy like Cody Ponce fit in? Is JT Brubaker a full-time starter? Who gets the fifth starter spot? These are all questions that Cherrington and Shelton will have to answer in camp next season.
Looking Ahead at a Possible Starting Rotation
When we look ahead to the possible 2021 starting rotation, there are many factors that play into what it could look like. Will Chris Archer return to the Pirates? Are Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams going to be moved? How are rookies from this season going to factor in? With all of that said, looking at the current roster of players, I would have to guess that Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, and Trevor Williams would all be locks for next season with Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, JT Brubaker, and Cody Ponce battling it out for the fifth starter spot.
With all of that competition for the starting rotation, it may be in the Pirate's best interest to move some of their older pitching pieces. However, the problem is none of their moveable pieces have very high trade value. Musgrove sits at 0-5 with a 4.86 ERA while Williams is 2-8 with a 6.18 ERA. Neither are making themselves look very desirable and as a result, the Pirates might not get what they want in return for them. However, strong showings from both of those guys during the end of the season could help bolster their trade value for the future. I am a fan of both Musgrove and Williams, but if we can get some much-needed depth back from them, I think the move would be worth it.
With all that being said, I think the Pirates do see a young rotation next season. I think Archer leaves and Musgrove is dealt during the off-season opening up two spots. With this being the case, my prediction would be Jameson Taillon, Mitch Keller, Chad Kuhl, JT Brubaker, and Steven Brault. With the exception of Taillon because of injury, those pitchers have all shown the ability to pitch well. Kuhl, Keller, and Brault are coming into their own as Big League pitchers and Brubaker is proving he can be a consistent arm. It may not be the most noteworthy rotation in the league, but this young group could be a consistently reliable rotation for the Pirates night in and night out.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (17-39) wrap-up their four-game series with the Chicago Cubs (32-24) this afternoon at 1:35 pm. Chad Kuhl (1-3, 5.03) looks to end his bounce-back year strong for the Pirates as he goes against Alec Mills (5-4, 4.14) for the Cubs. You can watch the game live on AT&T Sportsnet or listen on 93.7 The Fan as the Pirates try and take three out of four from the Cubs and come out of their final home game of 2020 with a win.
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