Offseason Questions: What Do The Pirates Do With Chris Archer

One of the biggest questions put on the back-burner this season was what the Pirates would do with Chris Archer. After missing the entire 2019 season with an injury, and not showing much promise before that, does the right-hander fit into next year's starting rotation?

On July 31st, 2018, the Pittsburgh Pirates were sitting at 55-52 and in third place in the National League Central Division. They sat seven games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs and six back of the second-place Milwaukee Brewers, however, they were still very much in the playoff race. There was pressure from the fanbase for Neil Huntington and the Pirates ownership to make a trade to take the Pirates to the next level. That is when Huntington swung a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays to bring former all-star starting pitcher Chris Archer to the Pirates. However, the team had to pay a hefty price, sending RHP Tyler Glasnow, OF Austin Meadows, and Minor Leaguer Shane Baz to the Rays.

While the trade was originally met with optimism by many Pirates fans, but that quickly faded after his first Pirates start. He made his debut on August 3rd, 2018, and lasted just 4.1 innings giving up five runs, three earned, on seven hits while walking four and striking out six. Archer proved to be very mediocre the rest of the season, finishing 2018 by going 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA in 52.1 innings of work in a Pirates uniform. 2019 got even worse as Archer was hit around at a .249 clip and allowed a career-high 25 home runs in 119.2 innings of work. The big question Ben Cherrington has to ask himself is whether or not the Pirates should give Archer another shot, or send him packing as they prepare for the future.

Archer's Mix of Busts and Bad Luck

Pirates fans may hate to hear it, but the biggest factor as to whether or not the Pirates will keep Archer. He has a club option for the 2021 season, but the Pirates would owe him 11 million dollars if they decide to pick up the club option. For a team that is looking to go young and build towards the playoffs, the salary may be too much for the Pirates to take on. With Gregory Polanco also set to make 11 million this season, that would mean two players making up nearly a third of the Pirates total team salary had a full 2020 season been played. Neither players have any value on the trade market and, even if they did, the Pirates would have to eat a lot of their salary.

The other thing the Pirates will have to look at is where would Archer fit in a potential 2021 Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation? Let's assume the Pirates trade Joe Musgrove and non-tender Trevor Williams over the off-season like it is reported the team will do. With the subtraction of those two pitchers, the rotation seems to shape up like this: Jameson Taillon, Mitch Keller, Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, and JT Brubaker with Cody Ponce, Brandon Waddell, and even Nick Tropeano fighting for the fifth starter/long-relief spot. You could argue that guys like Brubaker and Kuhl aren't locks, but they are more a part of the Pirate's future than Archer would be. With a record of just 6-12 and a 4.19 ERA in his first season and a half with Pittsburgh, he would have to convince the staff that he is back and fully healthy.

However, with the only elder statesman in the rotation being Taillon, it may benefit the Pirates to give Archer a shot to redeem himself as either the #3 or #4 starter on the team. Archer has said that he has worked well with new pitching coach Oscar Marin and showed a glimpse of that in his one and only Spring Training appearance in 2020. He pitched in two innings and did not allow a hit while walking just one and striking out four. His strikeout numbers had been down since joining the Pirates, so it was nice to see him have full control of his fastball. Archer could be a comeback candidate for the Pirates and, if he can bounce back, could be a big pick-up for the Pirates from within the organization and could be used as trade bait at the deadline if he can bounce back and bring some value to the Pirates.

Archer's Future in Pittsburgh

In all likeliness, the Pirates are probably going to part ways with Archer rather than exercising the club option. 11 million dollars is a lot of money to gamble on a bounce-back effort, and the shortened 2020 season ruined any chance of Archer showing that he has turned things around. The trade will go down as one of the worst of the 2000s for the Pirates as the Rays made it to the World Series in 2020 and the Pirates finished in last place with an injured Archer. With Gregory Polanco not going anywhere, there is no reason for the Pirates to risk that much money.

However, while his results on the field weren't good, he did bring a sense of initial excitement back to the Pirates. As he gets set to enter his age 32 season, he is looking to get back on track and show that he can pitch in a Major League rotation. If the Pirates don't exercise his club option, I wouldn't be opposed to them bringing him back on a cheaper, short-term deal, say a one-year deal. That would allow the Pirates to keep the veteran presence in their rotation while helping their budget for the 2021 season. This would be a low risk/high reward move that could give the Pirates a chance to get something for Archer if he does well.

For the Pirates, starting pitching is a big question mark heading into 2021, with a lot of young guys still looking to prove themselves. The success of these guys over the course of a full season will go a long way in determining how close the Pirates are to winning now. With the right veterans put in with the young guys, that turnaround could come faster than expected. The 2021 off-season will be crucial to the future of the Pirates organization under the new regime.