Rule 5 Draft Prospect Profile: Christian Kelley

The 2020 Rule 5 Draft is scheduled to take place on December 10th, 2020, as part of the Winter Meetings and the Pirates have some interesting prospects eligible. We will break down all the Rule 5 eligible players and whether or not the Pirates should worry about losing them or not.

Heading into the 2020 off-season, one of the Pittsburgh Pirates' biggest needs is catching depth. Outside of Jacob Stallings and Luke Maile at the Major League level, there isn't much excitement coming up through the Pirates Minor League system. The dilemma makes the 2020 Rule 5 Draft that much harder for General Manager Ben Cherrington and his staff, as several of the Pirates catching prospects are draft eligible. The one who is closest to Major League ready is Christian Kelley, who has spent the last five seasons climbing the ladder through the Pirates organization. He has always shown an ability to handle the position defensively, but his offense hasn't shown through.

Kelley was taken in the 11th round of the 2015 MLB Draft out of California State Polytechnic University and has always had a knack for the defensive side of the game. However, his offense has not come along as he has produced back-to-back seasons with a batting average below the .240 mark. If the 2021 season were to start today, Kelley would most likely be the team's third-string catcher. With the Pirates looking to add more depth, the time is now for Kelley if he wants a shot with the Pirates down the road. Let's look at the 27-year-olds career so far and whether or not the Pirates should protect him in the draft.

Defensive Specialist

When Pirates scouts were looking at Christian Kelley at Cal Polytech, it was clear he had all the tools to be a strong catcher behind the plate. However, his offensive game left little to be desired especially during his Freshman year. He appeared in 39 games for the Broncos and hit just .200 with no home runs and two RBI. However, he committed just two errors all season and had a .988 fielding percentage, keeping him in the lineup. When he was named the full-time starter during his sophomore season, he took full advantage of the promotion raising his batting average to a staggering .341 in 56 games, and the Pirates ended up taking him in the 11th round of the 2015 draft.

As was to be expected, his offense lagged along at first as he hit just .232 with no home runs and 28 RBI in his first full professional season with the West Virginia Black Bears. However, it was his defense that helped him once again stay in the lineup as he had a .982 fielding percentage and caught just over 26% of would-be base stealers. Because of this, the Pirates advanced him to low-A West Virginia Power. His workload increased, as he appeared in 77 games, but his offensive numbers were still low as he finished the season with a .236 batting average. Injuries allowed him to move up to Advanced-A where he had a hot streak hitting .355 in seven games played while driving in five RBI.

He moved to Advanced-A Bradenton full-time in 2017 and for the first time in his career showed slight offensive improvement. He appeared in 92 games for the Marauders that season and hit .243 with two home runs and 39 RBI in 325 at-bats. It looked like things were starting to come together for the young catcher as his fielding was stronger than ever with a .991 fielding percentage that season as well. With his pro career on the rise, the Pirates decided to advance the young backstop to Double-A Altoona in hopes that his success would continue. He showed more power, hitting a career-high eight home run while driving in 38 RBI, but his average dropped back down to .235. Kelley hadn't shown much power in his young career, and it looked like a promising sign.

He was rewarded for the spike in power as he got a promotion to Triple-A Indianapolis and was trying to show that he could be an everyday Major League catcher. However, he slipped into his old ways hitting just .179 with five home runs and 21 RBI. The struggles hurt Kelley's standing with the organization and forced the team to look for outside help heading into 2020. His defense was still strong, with a .992 fielding percentage, but his average was not going to cut it for a Big League catcher. He spent the 2020 season working out at the Pirates satellite camp in Altoona, but the confidence in him being a reliable third catcher is still in question until games resume.

Save Him or Leave Him?

In the case of Christian Kelley, he isn't a very enticing prospect on paper, so the Pirates shouldn't have to make a spot on the 40-Man Roster for him. While the organization is hurting for catching depth, a catcher with a career Minor League batting average of .229 doesn't really help the Major League club. To compete you can't have a hole in any part of your lineup that the opponent can expose. Kelley would provide stellar defense behind the plate, but his inability to hit is robbing him of a chance to play with the Pirates. If he could consistently get his average into the .250 or .260 range, that would give him a better chance to be an out of nowhere story much like current Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings.

I don't foresee any team's jumping on a chance to draft Kelley, but even if he does get picked up, it won't hurt the team in the long run. Cherrington's biggest job this off-season is to pick up catching depth, so I see Kelley getting knocked down the depth chart. If he does clear waivers, he will probably be resigned to Triple-A and given another chance to try and improve his skills. At most, Kelley projects to be a back-up catcher at the Big League level. As far as Kelley's future with the Pirates, it is unclear if he will ever be able to find his way on the Pirates roster. It will take a lot of work on his part, especially on the offensive side, if he wants to make his MLB debut in 2021.

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