Rule 5 Draft Prospect Profile: Dylan Busby
Raw power is something the Pittsburgh Pirates have not had in a while on the Major League club. The last true power threat the Pirates had was Pedro Alvarez back in the early 2010s, and even he was a victim of lengthy slumps. One guy in the Pirates Minor League system who looks to change that narrative is third base prospect, Dylan Busby. While at Florida State, Busby hit 38 career home runs and was one of the top run-producers for the Seminoles. Initially, his power didn't translate to professional baseball, but 2019 was his breakout season. He led the Florida State League with 22 home runs and showed the ability to drive the ball out of the ballpark.
However, with that raw power ability comes a lot of swings and misses and lengthy slumps that can last as long as a month. With Busby being such a streaky hitter in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues, it brings into question how his power will translate in the Major Leagues. It is his first year of Rule 5 Draft eligibility and team's looking at that power are going to have to calculate whether or not the strikeout rate is offset by that power ability. He also hasn't yet shown that he can bring that power on a consistent basis, and not having a Minor League season in 2020 took that opportunity away from him. With the power and the strikeout rate factoring together, the Pirates will have to choose whether Busby gets protected or whether teams will have their pick at the third base prospect.
Power That Excites
In college, Busby was part of a championship-caliber program with Florida State. During his three seasons as a Seminole, Busby helped lead his team to two College World Series and participated in the TD Ameritrade College Home Run Derby as a sophomore. With all this power in his resume, he had several teams interested during the 2017 draft. It was the Pirates who would take the chance of drafting Busby in the third round of the 2017 draft. He signed just a few days later and began his Pirates career with the Class-A Short Season West Virginia Power. However, his professional baseball debut didn't go nearly as well as he would like.
He appeared in 41 games that season for the Black Bears and hit just .188 with one home run and 14 RBI. Strikeouts are what ended up killing Busby that season as he struck out in 30% of his at-bats. When he did make contact, he wasn't able to generate hard contact. Of his 30 hits that season, only nine went for extra-bases, eight doubles, and one home run. During the month of September, Busby only had three extra-base hits, including his only home run, to end what was a lackluster professional debut. His defense needed some work as well as he committed seven errors in 337.2 innings of work for a .923 fielding percentage.
Because of his struggles in Short-Season ball, Busby was just moved to Low-A Ball for the 2018 season. Busby's offensive stats got better but not by much as he hit .233 with five home runs and 18 RBI in his first 29 games played. His power was coming back a little bit, but he still wasn't hitting enough home runs to offset his high strikeout percentage. Then, the injury bug struck for the first time in Busby's career after he got hit in the head by a pitch. He would be out for about a month as he was trying to rid himself of concussion-like symptoms. He came back on a rehab assignment in rookie ball, but got hit again and was down or almost the rest of the season. Busby returned to Low-A ball for four games by the end of the season and he picked up a hit in each game going 4-12 (.333) with two RBI in those final four games.
With the concussion symptoms behind him, Busby advanced to Advanced-A Bradenton for the 2019 season. This was his breakout year as he hit .213 with 22 home runs and 63 RBI. His raw power finally broke through at the professional level as he led the entire Florida State League in home runs. However, with the jump in power also came a jump in strikeouts. He struck out in 36% of his at-bats in 2019 and showed very little plate discipline. With Busby striking out as much as he did, it gave the Pirates some worry as to what would happen when he reached the higher levels of the Minor Leagues. He was named a Florida State League Mid-season all-star and is looking to jump to Double-A Altoona in 2021.
Power in the System
The big question with Busby moving forward is whether or not his strikeouts are going to affect him in the higher levels of the Minor Leagues. With power hitters, you expect the strikeouts, but not at a 36% clip. If Busby wants to be successful on his path to the Major Leagues, he is going to have to focus on his plate discipline. This is what a team who might take Busby in the Rule 5 Draft would have to consider. Busby also isn't the most sure-handed defender at the hot corner. Over his first three years of professional baseball, he has a career .939 fielding percentage at the hot corner. He has been making the move to first base as well recently and had shown positive signs there.
I don't think Busby will be threatened in the Major League portion of the Rule 5 Draft, but the Minor League portion might be another story. With his power, Busby could serve as a strong designated hitter option for an American League team. Any team would love to have a true power threat in their system, and that is exactly what Busby offers to a potential suitor. The ability to play both third base and first base also ups his value and allows him to be at either corner infield position. If he stays in the Pirates system, look for Busby to make the move to Double-A Altoona in 2021. If his power continues to show and his strikeout numbers go down, we could see one of the next Pittsburgh Pirates top prospects. If not, he will fade into oblivion like so many prospects before him.
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