Rule 5 Draft Prospect Profile: Noe Toribio

The 2020 Rule 5 Draft is scheduled to take place on December 10th, 2020, as part of the Winter Meetings and the Pirates have some interesting prospects eligible. We will break down all the Rule 5 players and whether or not the Pirates should worry about losing them or not.

A power arm under twenty years old is an MLB Organizations' dream. Young talent from within is always beneficial and you can develop that young arm into what you want him to be as a professional pitcher. That is exactly what the Pirates have in right-handed pitcher Noe Toribio. Toribio was signed by the Pirates prior to the 2016 season and has spent four of his five professional seasons climbing the ladder as a starting pitcher in rookie ball. In fact, it wasn't until 2019 that he broke the barrier between Rookie Ball and Short-season ball as he continued to work on his control and command of his pitches.

This leaves the Pirates in a predicament as Toribio enters his first year of Rule 5 Draft eligibility. He has shown the ability to hit 97 miles per hour with his pitches but routinely sits more in the mid-90s. With only seven games experience above Short-Season ball, teams won't be looking at him for the Major League portion of the Rule 5 Draft, but the Minor League might be a different story. He is just 20-years-old and while the lack of a Minor League season put him a year behind on his development, he is looking to bounce back at Low-A Ball in 2021. Toribio is developing into a top pitching prospect in the low levels of the Minor Leagues, but the question is whether or not he will continue his development in the Pirates organization.

Rookie Ball Heat

When the Pirates scouting team went down to the Dominican Republic in 2016, they were known for grabbing top talent from the area. One pitcher that caught their eye on this particular trip was Noe Toribio, who featured a mid-90s range with the possibility to hit as high as 97 miles per hour. The Pirates met with Toribio and he ended up signing a 100,000 dollar bonus at the end of the 2016 season. With the rookie ball season already over, Toribio would have to wait another year to make his Minor League Debut. He didn't have to travel too far as he began his professional career with the Dominican Summer League Pirates during the 2017 season.

While most pitchers get eased into pro baseball, Toribio hit the ground running at 17-years-old in the DSL starting rotation. He went 2-2 with a 4.13 ERA over 13 starts spanning 56.2 innings of work. Rather than pitching two or three innings, Toribio started his professional career with a four-inning outing against the DSL Cubs. He gave up four runs, two earned, on six hits in four innings of work while walking one and striking out four. He routinely worked four to five innings per start and showed he had the stamina to be a starting pitcher. His walk rate was good at 9.9%, but his strikeouts were a little lower than expected as he set down 18.1% of batters he faced.

However, he showed enough to earn a promotion and headed to the states with the GCL Pirates. He made one less start, but his ERA took a hit as he went 3-2 with a 5.68 ERA. He was starting to work deeper into games, but the results weren't coming along with it. He wasn't missing nearly as many bats, as he struck out six fewer batters than the previous season while walking 22. Toribio had a lower opponent's batting average, .263, but his opponents were making sharper contact. It started with his first start of the year when he gave up five earned runs. He would only end up turning in four quality starts all season. However, he finished the year strong with six innings allowing one earned run in a win against the GCL Blue Jays.

The momentum got him moved to Short Season West Virginia in 2019 where he joined the Black Bears rotation. It would be the start of his best season yet, as he appeared in seven games, making four starts for the Black Bears. He went 2-1 with an impressive 2.40 ERA during those outings. He finally found control of his arsenal, walking eight batters while striking out a career-high 26% of the batters he faced. In fact, he did so well that he was promoted to Low-A Greensboro where he made his final seven starts of the season. Toribio would continue his success in the Grasshoppers rotation, going 3-2 with a 3.79 ERA in 38 innings of work. He had two of the best starts of his career, throwing six no-hit innings in early August, and ending his year work a seven-inning three-hit appearance to end the season.

Projecting the Young Fireballer

With Toribio losing out on the 2020 season, it is hard to tell where the Pirates will feature him in 2021. Given that he had success in Low-A in 2019, there is a pretty good chance that he could see time in Advanced-A Bradenton. He has had most of his success in the starting rotation, so look for him to continue on that path. With a fastball that can get into the upper nineties,  that is a weapon that you don't want to lose as an organization. With Toribio in his first year of Rule 5 Draft Eligibility, it is unclear whether or not an opposing team would be interested in Toribio or not. There are many positives on his resume, but also some glaring negatives.

He has had problems with control in his past, and that has led to some heightened ERAs. Even though he can hit in the upper nineties, he has to be able to control that speed in order to be effective in the higher levels of the Minor Leagues. His strikeout numbers have never really been off the charts, so he has to rely on his location to generate soft contact from the opposition. If a team does take a chance on Toribio, it would be in the Minor League portion as he is nowhere near Major League ready. At just 20-years-old, Toribio has plenty of time to develop into a top prospect and has all the makings of a quality starting pitcher down the line.