Rule 5 Draft Prospect Profile: Travis MacGregor
Heading into the 2018 season, Travis MacGregor was one of the top pitching prospects in the Pirates organization. He ranked as the #19 overall prospect and was projected to be a middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Pirates. However, disaster struck during the 2018 season when MacGregor had to undergo Tommy John Surgery. He hasn't been on a Big League mound since and was looking to get back to action in 2020. However, the shutdown sent him back home and forced him to train and rehab from his home in Tarpon Springs, Florida. 2021 is a season of redemption for MacGregor as he looks to get back on track to the Major Leagues.
However, after being away from the game for two years, the come back is going to be harder than ever before. He wasn't protected in his first year of Rule 5 Draft eligibility, and it is unlikely that a team will take a chance on him, given the fact that he hasn't pitched in a live game since 2018. He is still young, at just 23-years-old and has time to develop, but he is going to have to show that he can get back to where he left off if he wants to get back ahead of some of those who have leapfrogged him since his injury. If a team were to show interest, it would definitely be in the Minor League portion, in a high-risk move to see if he can come back as good as he was before Tommy John
Just a Young Ace With a Dream
Coming out of high school, Travis MacGregor was the ace pitcher at East Lake High School in Tarpon Springs, Flordia. He stood at 6'3, 180 pounds, and was getting interest from both collegiate and Major League scouts. He had a fastball that was touching in the mid-90s and was committed to pitch at Clemson the following year. However, the Pirates were intrigued by his arm action and his abilities and ended up picking him in the second round of the 2016 MLB Draft. It took him a couple of weeks to make his decision, but MacGregor decided to begin his professional career rather than moving on to college. As the Pirates normally do with high school prospects, MacGregor began his professional career in rookie ball.
He started with the Gulf Coast League Pirates during that 2016 season and made nine starts going 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA. It was a good introduction to pro-ball as he missed a lot of bats, with an opponent's batting average of .248, but his strikeout rate was not that high at just 12.2%. He had a great start to his pro career, not allowing a run in his first three starts, and pitching to a 1.10 ERA through his first five starts of the season. He got roughed up in a start in mid-August, which raised his ERA, but other than that he was a solid starting pitcher for the GCL Pirates. He also displayed strong control allowing just 10 walks on the season for a walk rate of just 7.6%.
With all of his success during that first year, the Pirates moved MacGregor to the Appalachian League for the 2017 season. However, all of his success from 2016 had gone out of the window, as he struggled to a 1-4 record with a 7.84 ERA over 41.1 innings of work. He wasn't missing opponents' bats as he allowed hits to nearly 30% of the batters he faced while walking 10. His fastball wasn't nearly as effective as it was in the Gulf Coast League, and his lack of strikeout ability was beginning to hurt him. He gave up four or more earned runs in four of his 12 starts, including allowing six earned runs in a third of an inning in his final start of the season.
Despite the struggles, MacGregor was promoted to full-season ball in Class Low-A West Virginia for the 2018 season. He rebounded nicely by dropping his ERA by four points to 3.25, but his record remained 1-4. His breaking balls were more effective in the South Atlantic League, and his strikeout rate made a significant jump to 27% of the batters he faced. However, his elbow started to bug him in mid-May and he made his first trip to the Disabled List. He would miss nearly two months of the season returning in early July. He rattled off three quality starts in a row, but things started to go south as he allowed four earned runs in back-to-back outings. He wasn't as effective as he had been and he was shut down after lasting just two innings in his August 18th start. It was then discovered he would need Tommy John Surgery that would keep him out all of 2019. 2020 was supposed to be his comeback year, but now he is aiming for a strong comeback in 2021.
Injury Rehab
Being that he is coming off of Tommy John Surgery, and hasn't pitched in a game for over two years, the Pirates are likely to ease MacGregor back into game action. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a bullpen role, at least to start the season, with him working his way back to starting pitcher status. MacGregor has a lot of positive tools in his arsenal, but he is going to have to prove that he still has what it takes to be effective. If he were to be selected in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 Draft, a team would be taking a huge risk gambling on the fact that he can be as effective as he was before going down with Tommy John Surgery.
As far as MacGregor's projection for 2021, I think he has shown enough at Low-A West Virginia to be promoted to Advanced-A Bradenton. He will more than likely start in the bullpen, but could end up working his way to the Marauders starting rotation by season's end. I don't see him making the jump to Double-A Altoona yet, because the Pirates will still be easing him into live game action. However, at just 23-years-old, the Pirates can still afford to take their time and allow MacGregor to develop at his own pace. With his eyes on the Pirates starting rotation one day, MacGregor will have to work harder than ever to battle his way to the show.
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