Off-Season Questions: How Effective Will Taillon Be in 2021
Last season, the Pirates suffered through a long season that saw them finish a disastrous 19-41, the worst record in the MLB. Part of the problem was that the Pirates had several injuries that they had to contend with throughout the season. Three of those injuries were the Pirate's top three starting pitchers. Two of the three are returning for the 2021 season, and leading the list is right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon. Taillon has spent parts of four seasons with the Pirates and has made more than 30 starts in a season just once. That one season was a successful one as he went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA over 32 starts during that season. However, it is very hard to come back from one Tommy John Surgery, but a second come back from the surgery is even harder still.
After having a second Tommy John Surgery, 65% of pitchers only have three years left in the Big Leagues after the surgery. They allow 4.79 walks per nine innings and see their wins and losses cut by half on average. With Taillon being relied on as one of the top Pirates pitchers in 2021, that could be a problem for the team moving forward. It is unclear if Taillon will be as effective as he was coming up from the Minor Leagues, and if he can lead the team for years to come. With the amount of injuries he has suffered throughout his career, it is a big question as to whether or not he can even make a full come back in 2021. Today, we look at the history of some pitchers who have gone through two Tommy John Surgeries and see what to expect from Taillon in 2021.
Pitchers Who Recovered Twice
There have been 34 MLB pitchers to undergo two Tommy John Surgeries in the history of Major League Baseball. To the encouragement of Pirates fans, there are some pretty famous names on the list including Chris Capuano, Joakim Soria, and even Joel Hanrahan. A lot of the names on the list were relievers, so for the sake of comparison, we will look at former Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Chris Capuano. Capuano first had Tommy John Surgery in May of 2002 and then had to have it once again in May of 2008. Capuano's first Tommy John Surgery came before he made the Major Leagues, much like Jameson Taillon's did.
When he first broke into the Big Leagues in 2003, Capuano struggled initially, but finally caught his footing during the 2005 season. He made a team-high 35 starts for the Brewers that season and went 18-12 with a 3.99 ERA. His success continued in 2006, and he was named an all-star and picked up double-digit wins for the second year in a row, going 11-12 with a 4.03 ERA. Then, during the 2007 season, the Brewers could tell something was wrong as his numbers dropped dramatically to 5-12 with a 5.10 ERA. It was in Spring Training before the 2008 season that he found out he would require a second Tommy John Surgery. He would miss 2008 and 2009, returning to the Brewers in 2010.
The Brewers decided to ease Capuano back by putting him in the bullpen, and he pitched well appearing in 24 games, nine starts, and going 4-4 with a 3.95 ERA. Once the Brewers saw that Capuano could start again, he was back in the rotation for the 2011 season. He went 11-12 with a 4.55 ERA and showed he could handle a full-season workload. After that, Capuano went on to pitch seven more seasons in the MLB between five different teams before retiring following the 2016 season. Capuano was never a lights-out pitcher, but he was able to produce numbers that went right along with his career average and he was a formidable starting pitcher for years after. Taillon is hoping to do the same for the Pirates moving forward.
Taillon A Number One Again
In Capuano's case, the Brewers weren't counting on him to be the ace of the staff, but that is exactly what Taillon is expected to do. He has made some adjustments to tweak his delivery, which will hopefully help keep him healthy. He has gone from reaching way back behind him to deliver the pitch, to a shorter more compact arm motion with the intention to take some pressure off of the elbow. Taillon was throwing on flat ground at the end of the 2020 season, but the true test will be when Taillon is on the mound in bullpen sessions this Spring Training. The 39-year-old is hoping to show that he still has ace-like stuff and can lead a pitching staff.
Taillon last pitched in a game for the Pirates on May 1st, 2019 in Texas against the Texas Rangers. It was a game that Taillon would be forced to leave early and he has had his eyes on getting back to the mound ever since. Taillon's fastball averages in the mid-90s, but after the surgery, I would expect that to be more in the low-90s for the 2021 season. Because of this, Taillon is going to have to rely on his location, and his ability to change speeds to keep runners off base. Lucky for Taillon, he has a career walk rate of 6.0% throughout his career, two percent lower than league average. He has never really been a big strikeout guy, with a career 21% strikeout rate, so he will once again live on generating soft contact.
Taillon's first Tommy John Surgery came in April of 2014, right before he was on the brink of making his MLB debut. He didn't return to a mound until 2016 and made his MLB debut that season. He enjoyed a strong rookie year going 5-4 with a 3.38 ERA over 18 starts. He threw in 104 innings of work that season, showing his elbow had recovered and he showed no signs of slowing down. In 2021, I expect the Pirates and Derek Shelton to limit his innings early on and depending on how the elbow feels letting him stretch out. I expect him to make about 25 to 30 starts for the Pirates while working in about 100 innings of work. Coming back from Tommy John Surgery a second time is not easy, but Taillon's perseverance might make him just the man for the job.
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