Pittsburgh Pirates Christmas Wish List: A Josh Bell Rebound
The Pittsburgh Pirates' last-place finish in Major League Baseball in 2020 was due to a number of factors. Injuries ravished the team, with 11 players ending the year on the injured list, leaving holes everywhere in the field. However, another key factor to the down year was ineffectiveness, and one of the main culprits was first baseman Josh Bell. Whether it was offensively or defensively, Bell just didn't look comfortable at the plate and couldn't generate the show-stopping numbers he put up during the 2019 season. Since coming up in 2016, Josh Bell has held down first base for the Pirates and has developed into a power hitter in the middle of the Pirates order.
That all came to a head in 2019 when he had a career-year hitting .277 with 37 home runs and 116 RBI. He finished sixth in the National League with his 116 RBI and the top 20 with 37 home runs during the season. However, as 2020 rolled around, those numbers dropped off and he hit just .226 with eight home runs and 22 RBI in 57 games for the Pirates. As the year went on, Bell got better, hitting .244 in September, but it was nowhere near the level of success he had before. If the Pirates are to bounce back even a little bit this year, one of the top things on their Christmas List is going to be a Josh Bell rebound in 2021. With Bell hitting home runs in the middle of the Pirates lineup, it makes them that much more of a potent offense.
Cut Down on Strikeouts
One of Josh Bell's biggest problems last year was the number of times he struck out at the plate. Out of 223 plate appearances last season, Bell struck out 57 times for w 26% strikeout rate. While power normally brings strikeouts, Bell's production last season did not match-up with a 26% strikeout rate. One of the problems is the lack of protection Bell has in the lineup leading pitchers to save their best stuff for Bell's at-bats. The only other Pirate who has shown remote power ability is Colin Moran, and Moran was interchanging with Bell at first base throughout the season. With no one else in the lineup, Bell was left chasing breaking pitches out of the zone with nothing to hit.
He was going out of the strike zone about the same amount of times he has in seasons prior, but just wasn't making contact last season. In 2020, his chase% was 26.9, which was just a few ticks lower than his chase% in 2019. However, his Chase Contact% was just 50.7 which equals the lowest mark of his five-year Big League career. This is an indicator that Bell isn't just chasing pitches that are slightly off the plate, he is going way out of the zone to try and make contact. Bell has made it publicly known that he doesn't like to walk, and it seems opposing pitchers are taking to that message and going outside of the zone to get the overzealous Bell chasing.
In order to improve on this, Bell has to work on his plate discipline and laying off some of those pitches. If this means a move down in the order to change things up then that might be what it takes. During the 2020 season when Josh Bell did succeed, it was in the fifth and sixth spots of the batting order. In seven games as the number six-hitter, Bell hit .318 with one home run and two RBI, and in six games as the number five hitter, he hit .300 with two home runs and two RBI. Compare that with his .205 average in the clean-up spot and it is showing a big improvement. Also, when down in the order, his strikeouts improve as he went down just eight times in 42 at-bats. A move down in the order might be what the doctor ordered as the Pirates get ready for 2021.
Ring That Bell in 2021
If the Pirates want to improve their record in 2021, Josh Bell's success is going to be a big part of that. If he can get back to even half of what he did in 2019, it could help the Pirates two-fold. Not only would it give the Pirates another weapon in their lineup, but it would give them another piece they can put up for grabs at the 2021 Trade Deadline. Right now, Bell's trade value is rather low and while he still would bring in a prospect package, it wouldn't be nearly as big had he had a great 2020. The better Bell plays, the more enticing he becomes to a team that might be in a playoff spot come July of 2021.
If Bell can show the 37 home run power that he did in 2019, his stock immediately goes up for a competitor. Rather than bringing in one or two low-level prospects, Bell could garner a package that includes a top prospect near MLB ready to go along with other low-level options. However, if he underperforms, it ends up hurting the Pirates as they will have to package him with someone else to make the return worth it. Ben Cherrington still has two years of control for Bell, so that gives him the luxury of time as he waits for Bell's value to be at it's highest. They didn't move him last season being he was new at the job and still getting acclimated, but if Bell has a good start to 2021 look for his name to be in the rumor mill.
As the Pirates get set for 2021, Josh Bell is most likely in competition for the starting first base spot with Colin Moran. After Moran's explosive 2020 season and the emergence of Ke'Bryan Hayes, it is unclear if Bell even has a guaranteed starting job on the 2021 Pirates. Losing the designated hitter in the National League will hurt Bell's case because the defense he does play is not great. Although he worked on a new arm angle last off-season and slightly improved his fielding percentage to .984, he still has struggled mightily with the glove. However, if his bat comes back strong, the run production could make up for down defense and help check an item off the Pirates Christmas List.
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