What Should the Pirates Do With Joe Musgrove?
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a lot of moveable pieces available this off-season as they look to stockpile their farm system for the future. Guys like Adam Fraizer, Steven Brault, and several other of the Pirates veterans have already been on the rumor mill as being moved from the team. One of the names that also has been making its rounds is Pirates veteran starting pitcher Joe Musgrove. Musgrove came to the Pirates in the trade that sent Gerrit Cole to the Houston Astros. Because of Musgrove's hard-nosed style of play, he quickly became a fan favorite in Pittsburgh as he took on the blue-collar culture that Pittsburgh was built on.
As Musgrove enters his age 28 season, he becomes the veteran of the Pirates pitching staff. He has the most experience of any of the Pirates starters, including a World Series appearance with the Houston Astros in 2017. He is coming off an injury-plagued season, but came back in time for September and showed that he still had it finishing the season with a 2.17 ERA over those final five starts. Now the question that faces Ben Cherrington and his staff now is whether to hold on to Musgrove or use him as trade bait this season. We look at both possibilities to see what benefits the Pirates more during this rebuild as they try to build a championship team.
Musgrove At the Top of the Rotation
Despite going on the injured list lasts season, Joe Musgrove still had a pretty good 2020 season. He finished the year going 1-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 39.2 innings of work spanning eight starts. However, it was not a good start at all to the season for the 27-year-old, as he gave up 11 earned runs over his first 14.2 innings of work for a 6.62 ERA. After His start on August 4th, it was determined that Musgrove suffered from right tricep information. He missed a little less than a month of playing time, and when he came back he was better than ever. His ERA dropped from 6.62 down to 3.38 by season's end thanks to a Monster performance in the month of September, where he posted a 2.17 ERA spanning five starts.
The key to Musgrove's success was his ability to miss more bats consistently. He struck out at least four batters per start in September, including striking out 21 batters over his final 13 innings of work. It was like Musgrove was a new person back from the injury and he showed off his true potential. I fact, his strikeout ability was one of the best in the league as he struck out 33.1% of the batters he faced while walking 9.6%. And, whenever opponents were making contact, it wasn't solid contact as Musgrove posted a career-low 32.3 hard-hit percentage. His curveball and his slider were his two main out pitches as both had a put-away rate of over 30%.
If the Pirates decide to keep Musgrove this off-season, that gives them a pretty solid rotation. With Jameson Taillon back, Musgrove would slip into the middle of the rotation behind Taillon and Mitch Keller. That would give the Pirates three solid starters at the top of the rotation with all three showing success in the past. Behind them would be the breakout Steven Brault and most likely JT Brubaker in his first full season as the number five starter. Keeping Musgrove would take a lot of pressure off of a young guy like Brubaker and help ease him in as the team's number five starter. If Musgrove is able to do half of what he did in September through a whole season, it could be a good idea to keep him on staff.
Musgrove on the Move
For as good as Musgrove did last season for the Pirates, a look at his Major League career shows that he hasn't been able to sustain those types of numbers. In his previous four seasons, Musgrove has never had an ERA under four, with his previous career-low being 4.06. While that isn't bad for a starting pitcher, it isn't the lights out numbers that he produced in September this season. The other question that comes with keeping Musgrove is the fact that he has only made 30+ starts one time in his career, during the 2019 season with the Pirates. Being a started is still a fairly new role for Musgrove, and there is a question of whether or not he has what it takes to consistently log 180+ innings a season.
With that being said, Musgrove's trade value is also at an all-time high given his success in September. The Pirates reportedly were close to sending Musgrove to the Toronto Blue Jays at last year's trade deadline, but the deal fell through at the last minute. There have reportedly been several teams showing interest in Musgrove, including a rumor that the San Francisco Giants are in on the right-hander. If the price is right, Ben Cherrington could pull the trigger on a deal for Musgrove that would bring the Pirates back a nice prospect hall. But, who could the Pirates get for Musgrove?
At 28-years-old, a team that would take a chance on Musgrove would have a young starter with two years of control. Given his success last season, it wouldn't be unreasonable for the Pirates to ask for at least a top prospect in return. A reasonable trade for Musgrove would probably bring the Pirates back a package of prospects, with at least one who is almost ready to step in at the Major League level. Musgrove's value has never been higher than it is right now and keeping him could see his stats drop along with his value. However, if you keep Musgrove and he shows those dominant September numbers again, there is also a chance you could move him at the Trade Deadline.
I would like to see the Pirates keep Musgrove this off-season and possibly move him at the Trade Deadline. This gives the Pirates young starters a chance to ease back into the rotation, and can also help out in the bullpen. With Musgrove in the rotation, guys like Chad Kuhl and Cody Ponce would most likely get a shot in the bullpen. There has been talk of Kuhl moving to the bullpen due to his Tommy John surgery and Ponce can be used in long-relief/spot start situations. It also allows JT Brubaker to sit in the fifth starter's role, where there isn't as much pressure in his first full season. There is still a lot of off-season to go and Musgrove will have to sit and wait to see what the Pirates decide for his future.
Keep Big Joe.
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