Tyler Anderson Brings Experience to Pirates Starting Rotation
The Pittsburgh Pirates traded away two key members of their starting rotation as part of their rebuild this off-season, leaving many questions as to who will start for the Major League club. The Pirates began to address that question yesterday, signing veteran left-hander Tyler Anderson to a Major League deal. Anderson is a five-year MLB veteran and spent the 2020 season as a member of the San Francisco Giants rotation. He appeared in 13 games, 11 starts, for the Giants, and went 4-3 with a 4.37 ERA over 59.1 innings of work while walking 25 and striking out 41. For his career, he has gone 22-27 with a 4.65 ERA over his first five seasons between Colorado and San Francisco.
Anderson isn't going to overpower anyone, but he has a five-pitch mix that he knows how to use effectively. He also gives the Pirates another left-handed option in the starting rotation, balancing things out between righties and lefties. While his career 4.65 ERA may not look too flashy, he did it spending the first four years of his MLB career at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Now, he comes to a pitcher-friendly PNC Park and is looking to thrive in the starting rotation. He is also a guy who likes to work down in the zone and has generated a ground ball percentage of 42.5 over his MLB career. We look at Anderson's career so far and what he will add to the Pirate's starting rotation.
Success Waiting to Happen
On the surface, Tyler Anderson's career numbers make him an average MLB starting pitcher. Over his first 86 games, 82 starts, Anderson is 22-27 with a 4.65 ERA in just over 450 career innings. His fastball averages in the low-90s and he is a guy who generates a lot of ground balls due to the fact he works low in the zone. However, when you take into account that he pitched the first four years of his career at Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly park in the league, those stats start to look better. His best season in Colorado came in 2018 when he made 32 starts for the Rockies and went 7-9 with a 4.55 ERA over 176 innings of work. While his ERA was unimpressive in the mid-fours, his xERA was a more impressive 4.13.
What that means is, based on Anderson's performance alone, his expected ERA should have been around the 4.13 mark, but when you factor in unlucky plays and things that don't normally occur, you get the 4.55 ERA he produced. He has had an xERA lower than his actual ERA in four of the five seasons of his career. Another thing that will help him in PNC Park is the fact that he is among the league leaders with the lowest hard-hit percentage year in and year out. Last season, his hard-hit percentage was at 31.1%, three points lower than league average. He ranks in the top 20% in all of MLB in hard-hit percentage which saves him from giving up the big hit.
However, Anderson's problems begin when the base paths start to fill. When the bases are empty or there is a runner at first, Anderson has an opponent batting average of .256 and .157 respectively. However, once people get on base things start to get hairy for the left-hander. With runners at first and second, his opponent average goes to .350 and when they get to second and third, it goes up to .600. Finally, with the bases loaded opponents hit .333 against Anderson making scoring opportunities that much easier. His ERAs reflect these struggles as well as with every situation his ERA gets a little higher. The hope is that moving to a more pitcher-friendly park will help him work out these struggles, but he has to learn to pitch with runners on if he wants to be successful.
Leading the 2021 Pirates Rotation
Once he passes his physical associated with his signing, Anderson will step in as the veteran leader of the Pirates rotation. He is one of just two pitchers to have thrown a full season, and he has the most experience of any of the Pirate's pitching options. He has pitched 110+ innings twice in his career and has stayed relatively healthy. The only season that he missed time was in 2019 when he required surgery for a left knee chondral defect after just three starts. Last season was a nice bounce-back year for him, posting his lowest ERA since the 2016 season when he put up a 3.54 ERA in 19 starts for the Rockies. Now, he is looking to kick things into high gear with the Pirates.
Out of the five pitches in Anderson's arsenal, his two main pitches are his fastball (40.7%) and his change-up (33%). His fastball averages around 90 mph and he likes to use it down and into lefties early in the count. His opponents hit just .244 against it, and it accounted for 14 of his strikeouts last season. However, it is also the only pitch to get hit out of the park, as he allowed five home runs off the pitch. His change-up was his most effective pitch with an opponent batting average of .214 while generating 19 of his strikeouts. It registers about 10 mph slower than his fastball and its movement fools hitters. It starts out looking like the fastball but its 11.3 inches of break moves it to the other side of the plate and leaves hitters swinging empty-handed at a 32.5% rate.
As for his impact on the team in 2021, Anderson will almost certainly find himself a spot on the Opening Day roster. He probably won't be the Opening Day starter, but I can see him settling in as the #3 starter in the rotation. I still think either Chad Kuhl or Steven Brault will get the Opening Day start and Mitch Keller will start the Home Opener, so I have Anderson in the #3 spot in the rotation right now. If Brault starts Opening Day, this would allow the Pirates to go back-and-forth between righties and lefties through the first four spots in the rotation. The deal is for 2.5 million dollars, so at best the Pirates flip him for a prospect at the deadline, and at worst they eat the 2.5 million and he is let go after the season. Overall, it is a good signing to add a veteran presence to the starting rotation.
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