Pittsburgh Pirates 2021 Previews: OF Dustin Fowler
General Manager Ben Cherington has made it clear that he is determined to add talent to help rebuild this organization. The Pirates lacked depth last season, and it showed as the team finished dead last with a 19-41 record over the 60-game season. One of the most recent depth moves made by Cherington was when he added 26-year-old Dustin Fowler to the outfield depth. Fowler came over in a trade with the Oakland Athletics where the Pirates sent over cash in exchange for the outfielder's services. Fowler was once a promising prospect in the Yankees system, but a ruptured right patella tendon set him back, and he hasn't been given a full opportunity since.
His last full look in the Major Leagues came during the 2018 season when he was a fourth outfielder for the Athletics. He appeared in 69 games that season for Oakland and hit .224 with six home runs and 23 RBI. Fowler was a top 100 prospect in MLB a couple of years ago, but he has been the victim of a crowded Oakland outfield the last couple of seasons. Behind Stephen Piscotty and Ramon Laureano, the Athletics had five other outfielders on the 40-man roster and there was no room for Fowler to advance. Now that he joins the Pirates, he has a shot to battle with fellow outfielder Anthony Alford for the starting centerfield position. We look at what Fowler brings to the table and how he impacts the 2021 Pirates.
Looking For A Shot To Breakthrough
Ever since breaking into the league in 2018, Fowler has not been able to find his way back to the Big Leagues. However, he spent 2019 at Triple-A Las Vegas and had a breakout year for his professional career. He appeared in 130 games for Las Vegas and hit .277 with 25 home runs and 47 RBI over 606 plate appearances. It was the first time in Fowler's career that he hit 20+ home runs and the fourth consecutive year that he hit double-digit home runs during a season. Not only was he hitting the ball over the wall, but he was hitting the gaps as well as he hit 22 doubles and seven triples to go along with the home run power. As a left-handed hitter, PNC Park may play into Fowler's favor as he can use that short porch in right to drive the ball out of the Ball Park.
Of course with all power hitters comes the potential for a lot of strikeouts, and Fowler definitely fits that bill. In 606 plate appearances in 2019, he struck out 145 times for a strikeout rate of 23.9%. He doesn't walk very much, as he had a walk rate of 6.9%, so he relies on making as much contact as he can. The more contact that Fowler makes, the better his results will be. When he was in the Majors in 2018, he chased nearly 30% of the time and as a result, he didn't make much headway with his batting average. He only made contact 54% of the time on chases and had a BABIP of just .262. However, in 2019, he raised that BABIP to .332 and was making a lot more contact down in Triple-A.
It is clear that Fowler has some offensive ability, but how does he fare on the defensive side of the ball? He has experience at all three outfield positions, with centerfield being his "primary" position. Of his 69 games played in 2018, 57 of them came in centerfield and he posted a .991 fielding percentage in 403.1 innings played. He showed a decent arm, picking up an outfield assist, and used his above-average speed to track down balls in the gap. He ranked in the top 20% with a 0.4 burst time and is able to cover 33.5 feet per second. That speed and that burst time will be crucial for Fowler if he wants to be successful in the deep outfield that PNC Park provides.
Fowler's Battle For The Big Leagues in 2021
After essentially being blocked from the Major Leagues for the last two seasons, Fowler comes into Spring Training 2021 with a chance to win a starting job. Fowler has no Minor League options remaining and could find himself on the Pittsburgh Pirates opening day roster. Power is something the team desperately needs, and with Fowler's ability to hit the ball out of the Ball Park, it makes the 26-year-old an enticing option. When it comes to pure power numbers, most of his success seems to come off of the fastball. Back in 2018, five of his six home runs came off the fastball and he picked up 15 hits on fastballs. However, when it comes to putting the ball in play, more of his success seems to come off of off-speed pitches.
He saw off-speed pitched 15% of the time during that 2018 season, and hit .262 off of those off-speed pitches. He did his best work against the slider where he had a run value of one hitting .259 over 27 plate appearances. He had similar success against change-up, which he faced in 43 plate appearances and hit .268 against. It is one thing to have success against the fastball, but it is another when you can dial it down and handle the off-speed stuff just as easily. It will be this balance of being able to hit both types of pitches that will make him a successful Major Leaguer. If he can handle the change of speeds, he can then use that to generate more power and get in base on a consistent basis throughout the season.
I believe Fowler will be on the Pirate's Opening Day roster as the team's fourth outfielder in Chicago. He has no Minor League options left and a guy with that type of power will have a hard time clearing waivers. If Alford is healthy, Fowler's path to the Pirates roster becomes more difficult, but with the new 26-man roster, there is a way the Pirates could carry two back-up outfielders. If Fowler comes into camp and shows the power that he did in the Minor Leagues, the Pirates will be forced to give him a spot. It is a good problem to have, as it will allow the outfielders to battle it out and the best will be the ones to make the roster.
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