Brubaker Surpassing Keller As Pirates Pitcher to Watch
In 2018, the Pittsburgh Pirates had a ton of top prospect pitchers throughout their Minor League system. Guys like Mitch Keller, Shane Baz, and Nick Kingham were the top prospects to watch as the Pirates were looking to build towards the future. However, that season, none of those three pitchers won the Pittsburgh Pirates 2018 Minor League pitcher of the year award. That season, it went to a guy who was drafted kind of late at 21 years old and took some time to develop. The man who won that award was then 24-year-old right-hander JT Brubaker. Up until that 2018 season, Brubaker had had a shaky Minor League career up to that point but broke our going 10-6 with a 2.81 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. He was promoted to make his MLB debut in 2019, but injuries hampered his chances.
Three years later, and both Keller and Brubaker are staples of the Pirates 2021 starting rotation. However, while Keller is the one who came with all the hype, Brubaker is the one garnering all the attention with a hot start to the season. He has made four starts for the Pirates and has gone 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA. He suffered a tough loss his last time out at the hands of a J.A. Happ no-hit bid but continued to be dominant on the mound allowing two earned runs on five hits over seven innings of work. Meanwhile, Keller has had his ups and downs through the first four starts of the year, going 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA. Both are in their first full seasons with the Pirates and trying to establish themselves as full-time starters. The Pirates are counting on both for the future, but Brubaker is distancing himself as the future "ace" of the staff.
Consistency is Key
When looking at pure stuff on the mound, it is no contest that Keller has the better stuff. His fastball can reach up into the upper 90s, while his curveball and slider both have great break. Meanwhile, with Brubaker, you have a lower average velocity, 93.2 mph, but he relies on his pitch location to get outs consistently during ball games. This control is one of the things that has made Brubaker a superior pitcher to Keller. In the Major Leagues, Brubaker has a walk percentage of just 7.4% and is averaging 14.4 pitches per inning this season. Compare that to Keller's career 10.7 walk percentage and 19.95 pitches per inning and you see that the problem with Keller lies in his consistency.
Every time that Brubaker has gone to the mound this season, you know the Pirates have a chance to win the game. Brubaker pounds the strike zone at a 64% clip and lives by vetting batters to hit the ball on the ground. He has a ground ball rate of 58.7% this season, meaning his sinker is working and has the movement that he is looking for. When he keeps that sinker low in the zone, and balances it out with his high four-seam fastball, he can almost be unhittable on the mound. Keller's approach is vastly different as he knows he has the blow-it-by-you stuff and tries to use it. However, lately, he hasn't been blowing it by hitters and they have taken advantage. Keller is giving up a line drive percentage of 30.8% this season, and has an average exit velocity of 93.1, meaning that batters are finding the gaps and are taking advantage of his poor location.
But perhaps the biggest difference between Brubaker and Keller is their demeanor on the mound. There are times when Keller takes the mound that he just looks completely lost up there. It is almost like he is thinking "I have the stuff why isn't it working?" He second guesses himself and that leads to him giving up a lot of runs early in games. However, when Brubaker takes the mound, there is just a different presence that you don't see from the other starters. He doesn't get rattled easily, as was evident in his start against the Brewers on April 16th. He got into several jams with runners in scoring position, and every time he was able to work out of it. In contrast, when Keller has gotten into jams this season, he has shown an inability to get out of them. The difference between the two is confidence, and Brubaker has shown much more than Keller has this season.
Future of Both Players
No matter what happens, both Mitch Keller and JT Brubaker are set to be a big part of the Pirate's future. They are both young pitchers with high upsides and should be part of the next Pirates team that makes a playoff run. However, both still have a lot of growing to do before that happens. However, in the early going, Brubaker is showing that he has more of a grasp on these Big League hitters than Keller does. As time goes on, Keller may figure it out and surpass Brubaker, but for now, Brubaker is showing that he can be a reliable asset for the team. As the year goes on, both of these pitchers will grow and mature and hopefully be able to take the reigns of this rotation.
The big thing we want to see from both Brubaker and Keller this season is progress. Both had shaky years their first time around, but both are also a year older and a year more mature. For Brubaker, the progress has been more visible than that of Keller, but both pitchers are taking strides. Brubaker is learning how to more effectively locate his pitches in the zone while Keller is still getting the hang of using his nasty stuff. Brubaker is also a little older than Keller is, and therefore is a little farther along in his development. Both give Pirates fans a reason to be optimistic for the future of this pitching staff, as both look to stay around Pittsburgh for a while.
There is still a lot of season to go, and a guy like Keller has a chance to continue making strides, while we will probably see some digression from Brubaker throughout the season. However, right now Brubaker is almost untouchable on the mound and is the clear leader of this pitching staff. The Pirates will take the success for as long as he can as he continues to make headway towards being the ace of the rotation. It is still a little early to determine whether or not he is all-star caliber this season, but he has put himself right in line with some of the elite pitchers in the game. It is up to him to continue that consistency and keep the top spot.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (9-11) try to even up the series with the Minnesota Twins (7-11) today at 2:10 pm. Trevor Cahill (0-2, 9.69) looks to rebound from a bad start last time out as he battles Michael Pineda (1-0, 1.00) for the Twins. You can watch the game on AT&T Sportsnet or listen on 93.7 The Fan. Sorry, no live tweets today, but be sure to check back on Twitter and Facebook for final score updates.
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