Comparing Mitch Keller and Tyler Glasnow and Why The Pirates Shouldnt Give Up On Keller
Back in 2016, a young talented pitcher by the name of Tyler Glasnow made his Major League debut for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was 22-years-old and brought with him a lot of promise from the Minor Leagues. He spent a total of seven seasons in the Minor Leagues, five of those before he made his debut, and had a career 2.01 ERA going 45-21. However, in his first seven Big League appearances, he went 0-2 with a 4.24 ERA in 23.1 innings of work. Things didn't get any easier for Glasnow as he went up and down between the Major and Minor Leagues and had an ERA over 4.00 in each of those seasons. Then, in 2018, he was packaged in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays and went on to become one of the top pitchers on the Tampa Bay staff.
Two years later, the Pirates have another young pitcher coming up to the Major Leagues and he is having similar struggles. After giving up four earned runs in 2.1 innings, Keller's ERA is up to 8.20 and he now sits at 1-2 on the season. His career ERA sits at 6.07 and he has gone 3-8 in his first 20 Big League starts. He showed flashes of his potential in 2020, but he was limited to just five starts because of injury. Keller has some of the same tools that Glasnow featured when he was called up to the Major Leagues and the Pirates don't want to make the same mistake as before. We compare the early years of Tyler Glasnow with the current struggles of Mitch Keller and look at what the Pirates can do differently so they don't make the same mistake they did with letting Glasnow get away.
The Early Years of Tyler Glasnow
When Tyler Glasnow first came to the Big Leagues, he was one of the hottest pitchers in Major League Baseball. He had 788 strikeouts in 595.2 career Minor League innings for a strikeout rate of 33% and had an opponent batting average of just .173. His fastball averaged in the mid to upper 90s, and in the Minor Leagues, he was blowing the ball by hitters. However, when he got to the Major Leagues and his fastball didn't nearly have the same effect. Instead of getting past bats, the ball was getting put in play more often and resulted in hits instead of outs. One of the big things that hurt Glasnow when he made it to the Major Leagues was his control issues. He walked just over 11% of batters in the Minor Leagues and he wasn't getting the chases he was in the Minor Leagues.
In the Minors, Glasnow had the ability to get bad pitches by hitters, but that didn't fly in the Major Leagues. When Glasnow first got to the Major Leagues, he wasn't nearly getting as many chases as he would have liked. In his first three years in the Major Leagues, he had a chase percentage of anywhere between 23 and 24%, much lower than where he averaged in the Minor Leagues. And, when they were chasing Glasnow's pitches, they were making contact over half of the time. It came back to the fact that he couldn't beat hitters with just his pure stuff and he had to improve his location to be successful. The Pirates ended up not being able to straighten Glasnow out for three seasons, and he was traded to the Rays where he has since become a strong pitcher in their rotation.
Keller's Early Struggles
Much like the early years of Tyler Glasnow, Mitch Keller also came to the Big Leagues as a 24-year-old rookie with a lot of promise. His Minor League career had slightly higher stats than Glasnow, but he still went 36-22 with a 3.12 ERA over 539.1 innings of work. His strikeout rate (25.5%) was slightly lower than Glasnow's, but his walk rate was four percentage points better (7.6%). However, like Glasnow, when he came to the Big Leagues, things didn't go well. Keller appeared in 11 games in 2019 and went 1-5 with a 7.13 ERA in 48.1 innings. He did show signs of success last season, with a 2.91 ERA, but injuries only allowed him to make five starts. When he came back, he featured control issues that hadn't really plagued him in his career but have lingered into 2021.
With Keller, the walk rate is the thing that really sticks out and has dramatically changed throughout his three half seasons. In 2019, he walked just 7% of batters he faced, which is right on par with his career. However, in each of the last two seasons, his walk rate has been 18% or higher. One of the biggest things that have affected Keller is his fastball has lost some effectiveness at the Major League level, and he is lacking confidence in the pitch. Right from the get-go, the pitch was getting hit hard, as opponents hit .461 off of it during Kellar's first season. Since then, he has seemingly lost confidence in the pitch and has been trying to work in his less effective breaking stuff to compensate. When he is on the mound and confident, he is an unstoppable force. But, when his confidence lacks, he starts to get into trouble more often than not.
Why The Pirates Should Stick With Keller
With both Keller and Glasnow, the big thing that seemed to haunt both pitchers is confidence. With Glasnow, he was a power pitcher trying to work in the soft stuff in Pittsburgh, but once he left and went to Tampa Bay he started trusting his fastball more and it paid off. We are going to have to see a similar shift in Keller, as he is going to have to gain confidence in his fastball. You saw yesterday when Keller was getting into 2-2 and 3-2 counts, he was going to his slider and curveball and was missing the zone. These are counts where a power pitcher needs to trust his fastball, and that is what Keller needs to do. When he is on, his fastball can reach up to 97 mph, and he needs to have the confidence to throw it for strikes.
In order to do that, the Pirates have to keep sending him out there, no matter how bad the starts end up going. Keller has some of the best pure stuff in the rotation, and once it blossoms, he is going to be a dominant pitcher. It is just a matter of getting him out there and essentially having him figure it out. The Pirates might choose to skip a Keller start every now and then to give him a "mental" day off, but sending him to the Minor Leagues won't do anything for him at this point. He just needs to work through some things and bring out that potential he showed in the Minor Leagues. It may not be the answer that Pirate fans want to hear, but you don't want to risk losing Keller and have him blossom for another team. Just like fans need to be patient during this rebuild, fans need to be patient and wait for Keller to gain confidence and really blossom on the field.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (12-12) are off today, but return to action tomorrow when they take on the St. Louis Cardinals (12-12) on Friday at 6:35 pm. JT Brubaker (2-1, 2.01) looks to bounce back from some bad luck last time out as he faces John Gant (1-2, 2.25) for the Cardinals. You can watch the game on AT&T Sportsnet or listen to 93.7 The Fan. There will be no live-tweeting on Buccos Cove until May 5th, but be sure to check our Facebook and Twitter pages for final score updates after every game.
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