The Story of Kevin Newman: Spring Training Success to Slow Starter
As the Pittsburgh Pirates entered Spring Training 2021, the shortstop position looked a lot like it did two years earlier. There was no clear-cut starter at the position, and Kevin Newman and Erik Gonzalez were battling for playing time. Gonzalez was definitely the more sure-handed defensively, but Newman's bat is what ended up earning him the job. He had the best Spring Training in Major League history, hitting .606 with five RBI while not striking out at all throughout Spring Training. With that kind of performance, the Pirates had no choice but to name Newman the Opening Day starter at shortstop and give Gonzalez, who also had a solid spring hitting .326 with two home runs and eight RBI, a spot on the bench.
However, since the season has started, Newman has been nowhere near as good as he was when the team was down in Florida. He has played in 14 of the team's 15 games this season and has hit just .167 with two RBI over 54 at-bats. After hitting in the sixth spot of the lineup for most of the season, Manager Derek Shelton tried to switch things up by moving Newman to the leadoff spot. However, that did not go well either as Newman went 0-4 yesterday in the Pirates' 7-1 loss to the Brewers in game two of their three-game series. So, the question remains what the heck happened to Newman? We take a dive into the numbers today to see what Newman has to change to get back to the hot-hitting we saw from him in Spring Training.
Need More Hard Hits
When I was diving into the numbers on Kevin Newman, there was one thing that really stood out to me. While he had a great BABIP in 2019 when he was tearing the cover off the ball, he wasn't hitting it very hard. In fact, in 2019, Newman had one of the worst hard-hit percentages in all of baseball that year, hitting the ball hard only 24.8% of the time. This is a trend that has followed him throughout his time in the Major Leagues. In each of his first three MLB seasons, Newman has ranked in the lowest 20th percentile in all of Major League baseball. Because he isn't hitting the ball hard, his exit velocity has been down, meaning he isn't screaming the ball past anyone.
Much like his hard-hit percentage, his exit velocity is something that has also been down throughout his career. In 2019, when Newman was at his best, his exit velocity was at 85.3 mph. Also like his hard-hit percentage, Newman has been in the bottom 20th percentile in the league in exit velocity in each of his three seasons. So, why was Newman so successful in 2019? The answer could lie in his rookie status and the fact that teams weren't shifting him as much. They are learning where Newman likes to hit the ball, and are making slight adjustments to combat that. That has been prevalent in the progression of his BABIP throughout his three years in the MLB.
During his 2019 season, he had an impressive BABIP of .333 and was able to find holes left and right. Most of these were groundballs that found their way through the infield as he had a groundball rate of 50%. However, we saw a dramatic shift in Newman's BABIP in 2020 as it dropped more than 80 points down to .250. However, his ground ball rate didn't change as he hit the ball on the ground 50.7% of the time. Why the dramatic shift? Infielders were repositioning themselves based on tape on Newman in 2019, and we're cutting down the holes he found in the past. With Newman not getting much hard contact, a little shift helps increase a fielder's range and allows them to get to the ball faster, resulting in more outs.
Just Keep Putting The Ball in Play
This is going to sound kind of counterintuitive, but the way for Newman to get back on track is to put the ball in play. He just has to work on adjusting and finding the new holes created by the defense. The pitching has adjusted to Newman's style of play, so it is now Newman's turn to adjust to the style of pitching he is facing. So far in 2021, he is putting the ball on the ground more than ever at 72.5% of the time, and once again his hots are just not able to find the holes. His BABIP so far is .176, and although he is making a lot of contact, they once again aren't finding holes for Newman. However, one thing Newman has handled really well is he is one of the hardest people in the National League to strike out.
So far in 14 games, covering 55 plate appearances, he has struck out just three times. Over his career, his strikeout percentage sits at 24.5%, more than 10% under the Major League average. However, this hasn't resulted in a large walk percentage as Newman has walked just 5.3% in his three seasons in the Major Leagues. This means that while he is not striking out, he is also not showing the patience to draw a lot of walks. So, another way to improve for Newman is to work on his plate discipline and working the count. Newman is a contact hitter and he doesn't like working long counts. He has averaged just 3.2 pitches per at-bat as he usually makes contact early in the count.
For Newman, the biggest thing he can do to improve is to be more patient at the plate and take more pitches. It is no secret that during the regular season, Newman has struggled last season and at the start of this season. And, with Erik Gonzalez's stock on the rise, there is some serious competition for playing time. During Spring Training, opposing teams aren't using scouting reports, so Newman had those normal holes open for him. However, now that the season has started, these holes have closed and Newman is left right back where he was in 2020. There is still a lot of season to go, and time for Newman to turn things around, but it will be up to the adjustments he makes as to whether or not he will find success.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (6-9) wrap up their three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (8-6) this afternoon at 2:10 pm. Chad Kuhl (0-1, 6.75) looks to shake his first-inning struggles this season as he takes the mound for the Pirates against Freddy Peralta (2-0, 0.69) for the Brewers. You can watch the game live at AT&T Sportsnet, listen on 93.7 The Fan, or follow along with us on Twitter at @Buccos_Cove.
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