Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Round 3: What To Expect
It has been exactly one year and eight months since PNC Park has been opened to 100% capacity. Their last game with a full audience was on September 29th, 2019, against the Cincinnati Reds. Well, for the first time since that 2019 season, the Pirates are opening the doors to full capacity once again. It is an exciting time for the players, coaches, and fans as a sense of normalcy returns to the city of Pittsburgh. These young players are looking to show what they can do, and for many of them, it will be their first time in front of a full capacity crowd. However, it won't be easy as they welcome in the division leader for a four-game weekend series full of special events.
The Milwaukee Brewers make their way to PNC Park for their third match-up of the season. After a hot stretch where the Pirates won six of 10 games, the Pirates had a rough series in Colorado where they got swept and were outscored 16-2 at hitter-friendly Coors Field. They were shut out twice in the series as the offense limped throughout the game and are looking for a rebound in their home park. Overall, it was a 3-4 road trip for the Pirates, and on one hand, they took three of four from the St. Louis Cardinals but on the other, they got swept by the Rockies. With just 11 games left before the all-star break, the Pirates are hoping to get back on track before the break. Today, we look at what to expect as the Pirates and Brewers battle in front of a full house at PNC Park.
What Happened Last Time
The last time these two teams matched up was in a three-game series in American Family Park from June 11th through the 13th. It was a series that did not go well at all for the Pirates as they were swept and outscored 19-10 as neither the offense or the pitching could get on the same page. The series came during a stretch of games where the team as a whole were playing awful, losing 10 games in a row. They come back home once again in the midst of a losing streak, having dropped their last three games, but this time they are hoping to keep things under control before the train comes rumbling completely off the tracks.
It won't be easy as the Brewers enter this one with momentum completely on their side as of late. They just pulled off a seven-run come from behind win their last time out as they defeated the Chicago Cubs 15-7 to take a six-game lead in the National League Central. In total, they enter the series having won eight straight games and 10 of their last 12 contests. They have been powered as of late by their high-powered offense, which has been one of the best in the league as of late. They have scored the most runs (51) and driven in the most RBI (48) in Major League Baseball over the last seven days while sitting second in home runs (13) and fourth in batting average (.286) over that same stretch. Despite a bad performance early in yesterday's game, the Brewer's pitching staff has been equally strong during that stretch, pitching to a 2.73 ERA (4thl and allowing 20 runs (t-5th fewest). It will be a tall task for the Pirates as they try and knock the Brewers off their perch.
Use Home Cooking
One thing the Pirates do have going for them as they enter this four-game series is that it usually favors the home team. The struggles for the Pirates in Milwaukee are well documented over the last several seasons, but at PNC Park, it has been a completely different story. Since 2015, the Pirates have had a 32-23 record against the Brewers at PNC Park, and have averaged 6.2 runs per game over each of the last two years at PNC. Last season was their best effort yet at PNC Park, as in their six match-ups against the Brewers, they went 4-2 and were right on their average of 6.2 runs per game. That was two runs more than they averaged in Milwaukee last season, while they allowed more than a run less at home as opposed to on the road against the Brewers.
The Pirates have also been a better team while playing at PNC Park this season, especially on offense. At PNC Park, the Pirates are hitting .234 and have scored 151 runs on the season. Compare that to their road numbers where they hit just .226 and have scored only 120 runs this season. Leading the way at home, as they have most of the season is Bryan Reynolds and Adam Frazier. Frazier is the team's leading hitter at PNC Park, hitting .326 there this season, as he continues his tear through the MLB. However, the Pirate's best overall player at home has been Bryan Reynolds, who is hitting .301 with seven home runs and 21 RBI in his home park. Reynolds has evenly split his home runs between home and road games, but he is much more of a threat at PNC Park with that short porch in right. If these two can continue their success, the Pirates should be able to continue their home success against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Shut down the Brewers
We have been saying it all year and will continue to say it, but the key to this series is going to ride on the backs of the Pirates young pitchers. They will end up sending two guys who pitched very well in Milwaukee the last time these two teams met. Wil Crowe kicks things off in game one, coming off his first Major League win. He got the ball two starts ago in Milwaukee and turned in what has been his best start of his career. He lasted 5.0 plus innings giving up two earned runs on two hits while walking one and striking out eight. He held a very potent Brewers lineup to just two hits and set a new career-high in strikeouts. He has been much better in his second stint with the Pirates, pitching to a 4.90 ERA over his last three starts, and is looking to continue his success as the Pirates re-open PNC Park to full capacity.
He is followed by the Pirate's most consistent starter this year in JT Brubaker for the second game of the series. Aside from a few bumps in the road, Brubaker has shown that he can handle the work of a Major League starting pitcher. In his lone start against Milwaukee this season, Brubaker allowed one earned run over six innings of work in that start against the Brewers, where he showed that he had the poise to be a Major League starting pitcher. Brubaker still has a lot to prove, but his team-leading 3.76 ERA among starting pitchers goes a long way in showing what he can do. Pitching is going to be more important than ever in this series as the Pirates try to knock off the division leaders.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (29-50) kick-off the four-game weekend series with the Milwaukee Brewers (48-33) tonight at 7:05 pm. Wil Crowe (1-4, 6.50) takes the hill after getting his first MLB win as he faces Corbin Burnes (3-4, 2.53) for the Brewers. You can watch the game live on AT&T Sportsnet, listen on 93.7 The Fan, or follow along with us on Twitter by following @Buccos_Cove.
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