Playing Down or Up to the Competition and How It Affects the Pirates
The 2021 season has been a rollercoaster ride with some of the highest highs, like Stallings walk-off grand slam, and some of the lowest lows, like the 20-1 loss to the Atlanta Braves. Even recently, we have seen the Pirates play some of the best baseball this season followed by some of the worst. When the Pirates were playing the New York Mets after the all-star break, they played very well, taking two of the three games in the series and outscored the Mets 19-15. They combined to go 6-4 against the top two teams in the NL East and helped change the rankings in the NL East. However, they turned around and got swept by the worst team in baseball and we're outscored 21-12.
Then, the Pirates came back and beat the beat team in baseball, the San Francisco Giants, in game one of their three-game series last night. So, how is it that the offense can't get going against the worst team in baseball, but is able to come back and beat the best team in baseball which they have a 3-2 record against this season. Some may say it is the idea that the Pirates tend to play down to the level of their competition when it is a bad team, while playing up to the level of their competition against good teams. We have seen the Pirates handle good teams at times this season, San Diego, San Francisco, and Milwaukee, but turn around and bit handle business against the bad teams, Colorado and Arizona. Today, we look into this notion and see whether or not the Pirates are playing up or down to the level of their competition, or if it is just a coincidence as to when these good series and bad series occur.
Above .500 Teams vs. Sub .500 Teams
To see if the notion that the Pirates play up or down to their competition level is true, we have to see how they have faired against winning teams this season. Looking at the three leaders in each of the National League Divisions, the San Francisco Giants (NL West), Milwaukee Brewers (NL Central), and New York Mets (NL East), the Pirates have faired decent this season. Overall, they have a record of 10-13 and are averaging just under 4.0 runs per game while allowing 5.1 runs per game. However, the pitching has not been good during those stretches allowing three runs or more in 15 of the 22 games played and the Pirates have a record of 5-10 in those games.
Now, we look at the three bottom teams in the National League, excluding the Pirates, which are the Arizona Diamondbacks (NL West), Chicago Cubs (NL Central), and Miamo Marlind (NL East). In these games, the Pirates have a record of 7-11 in 18 games played and are averaging 4.3 runs per game while allowing an average of 4.4 runs per game. However, in these games the Pirates pitching staff hasn't been nearly as proved to giving up a lot of runs in a single game. They gave up three or more runs in 11 games, but the Pirates record was much worse in those games at 3-9. The Pirates seem to handle their business better against worse teams, but when the pitching falls apart, there is less likely of a change the team comes back.
What these stats tell me is there is no real correlation that proves the Pirates perform better it worse against tougher competition. In both instances, the Pirates are three games under .500 and score anywhere from a run or less few than their opponents do. However, the big difference comes in games where the pitching allows three or more runs. Against better teams like the Giants, Brewers, and Mets, the Pirates have had a more likely chance of still winning those games. However, when it happens against a team like the Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Marlins it seems that the Pirates seemingly can't fight their way back into the game. So, I don't think it is the fact that the Pirates play better against better teams, but that they have more fight when they are down to be able to battle back into games.
Bringing the Intensity Against Lesser Team's
The big thing the Pirates need to work on in order to keep this rebuild moving in the right direction is getting that same intensity they would have against a team like the Mets as they do against a team like the Diamondbacks. They always play hard, as has been evident all season long, but at times they haven't come through against teams they shouldn't have. It seems like when they are playing better teams they have more focus and are able to channel that into giving themselves a chance to come back. This bodes well for the Pirates when they start to be competitive again as they seemingly have more fire in those big moments.
The way to get them playing better when they are expected to win is going to come with a culture change, and that starts with Manager Derek Shelton. Shelton has to have his guys focused every time out there, and so far I think he has done a good job with that. You see that the players respond well to him, earning high praise in the locker room, and as he continues to know these young guys, that should run through the organization. He has gotten the Pirates back to working on their fundamentals, which has shown in the fielding stats, and that begins to make a winning culture when you start to do the little things right.
So, for the people who say the Pirates "played down" to their competition in Arizona, I don't think that was entirely true. The Diamondbacks have owned the Pirates over the last several seasons and that, along with a pitching staff that got hammered during the series. The home run ball killed the Pirates in that last series, and it led to the Pirates taking the sweep. As a team, the Pirates are trying to score more runs and the pitching staff has to help them by making games more competitive. As more talents drive these games should be closer and closer as the Pirates climb the MLB ladder.
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