How The Rainout May Be Just What Mitch Keller Needed
Yesterday, was a wet day at PNC Park as the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers were rained out. I was at the field, and at one point you couldn't see left field when sitting behind the left-field bleachers. Because of this, the Pirates got a day off and will play two seven-inning games today. For Mitch Keller, it means an extra day of rest as he is scheduled to start game two of today's twin bill. It has not been the season that Keller wanted to have in 2021 as he has gone 3-9 with a 7.06 ERA through 14 starts this season. He was sent down to Triple-A Indianapolis to work on some things, but since he has come back not much has changed. In his two starts since his return, he has gone 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and has had almost the same stat line. In both starts, he lasted 5.0 innings and gave up four earned runs.
He was set to make the start last night against the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, a team he has yet to face this season. With one of the bat pitching staffs in baseball right now, Keller was going to have to pitch lights out. Plus, he was set to go against Brett Anderson, who has yet to allow an earned run against the Pirates in two starts. However, after the rainout, Bryse Wilson is set to go against Anderson in game one, and Keller isn't scheduled to go until game two. He gets to face young pitcher Aaron Ashby, who has a 13.50 ERA. The rainout helped give Keller an extra day off while giving him an easier pitching match-up. Today, we look at how the rainout helped both Keller and the Pirates as they kick off this three-game series.
Better Pitching Match-ups
The biggest thing the rain outdid to help both Keller and the Pirates, is give them some better pitching match-ups. Because of the rainout, Bryse Wilson will take on Brett Anderson in game one followed by Mitch Keller and Aaron Ashby in game two. Originally, it was supposed to be Keller and Anderson, which on paper did not bode well for the Pirates. Since being recalled from Triple-A, Keller hasn't had the success that he wanted, going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA over two starts. While no Pirates pitchers are really picking up wins this season, the ERA is the most concerning. In both starts, Keller allowed four runs over 5.0 innings in both outings.
On the other side, Brett Anderson has been a guy that has absolutely dominated the Pirates this season. In two starts against the Pirates this season, Anderson has yet to allow an earned run and has only allowed one run total. The Pirates have just nine hits in 12 innings against Anderson and have struck out six times. With the Pirates unable to score runs against Anderson, the match-up of a pitcher who historically has given up a lot of runs is not a good thing. However, Bryse Wilson has been good at limiting opponents in his first two Pirates starts. He has allowed four earned runs in his first two starts, and went 6.0 innings allowing three earned runs his last time out. Wilson's ability to throw quality innings matches up a lot better against Anderson's dominance of the Pirates than Keller's inconsistency.
However, in game two, the Brewers are going with a much less experienced arm in Aaron Ashby. Ashby has made just two starts at the Big League level and has posted a 13.50 ERA over 2.2 innings of work. During that time he has allowed six hits, seven runs, and six earned runs. Opponents are hitting .400 against him while walking three times and striking out once. On paper, this is a guy who the Pirates offense should get on early. The key to these seven-inning games is getting as many runs as you can early. Keller has pitched better when he has had a lead this season, and this could be the day he gets the run support that he needs.
Getting Back On Track
This start tonight is an important one not only for Keller but for the Pirates as a whole. Throughout his pro career, Keller has been looked at as the next generation of Pirates starting pitchers to lead the team to winning ball. However, since he has made the Major Leagues he has been anything but that with a career 6.38 ERA over 30 career starts. There have been flashes where Keller has shown his full potential, but more often than not his starts have been more or less Keller getting hit around. Over this final month and a half of the season, Keller needs to start showing that he can be that power arm the Pirates have been hoping for. If he continues getting hit at a high rate, the Pirates will have to make a decision on Keller's future in Pittsburgh.
Looking ahead to the possible Pirates 2022 starting rotation, Keller is not a lock to make the group. After three sub-par MLB seasons, he is going to have to work hard to earn his spot on the roster. If nothing changes between now and March 31st, 2022, the four locks I see for next year's staff are Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, Bryse Wilson, and JT Brubaker. The fifth spot is the one up for grabs with its like Wil Crowe, Max Kranick, Cody Ponce, and Keller fighting for the spot. Maybe lighting a fire under Keller is what is needed to bring the best out of him, but he is definitely in the hot seat and in danger of losing his job moving forward.
Hopefully, today's start is the one that gets him back on track and starts that upward track. It will be a challenge as he has to take on a Brewers lineup that has pounded the Pirates this season, and he is tasked with shutting down the likes of Eduardo Escobar and Willy Adames among others. However, with his offense also having a favorable match-up in game two, he should have some run support to work with on the mound. It is the start of Keller's fight for his Big League life over the final month and a half. He should get about six to seven more starts before the season is over, and each one holds more and more value for the 25-year-old as he tries to prove that he belongs in the Major League.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (41-74) play a split-doubleheader this afternoon against the Milwaukee Brewers (70-46) beginning at 2:30 pm. Game one will begin at 2:30 pm and features Bryse Wilson (2-5, 4.43) for the Pirates against Brett Anderson (4-5, 3.54), and game two will begin at 7:05 pm with Mitch Keller (3-9, 7.06) against Aaron Ashby (0-0, 13.50). You can watch both games on AT&T Sportsnet it listen on 93.7 The Fan.
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